On August 3, 2023, a tragic event occurred in Shovi, in the Racha region of Georgia, when a mudslide killed 24 people, and according to the latest official information, nine are still missing.
According to the National Environmental Agency, the collapse of a rocky mass of approximately 500,000 cubic meters in the Bubistskali River valley, west of the Buba glacier, caused the rock avalanche, which led to the rupture of a glacial mass spanning about 62 hectares and the release of subglacial water.
Nino Tandilashvili, First Deputy Minister of Environment Protection and Agriculture, said at a press briefing dedicated to the Shovi tragedy that it was impossible to predict the natural disaster and that there were no indications it was about to happen. She said: “There was information from a water level gauge station that did not record any drop in water level either before the disaster or during the disaster… [Satellite images] show that there was no large water mass and lake ponding; it was a very instantaneous […] collapse of the rock avalanche mass, which collided with the glacier mass and […] brought it down to the Shovi resort in a very short time. This proves once again that when we talk about the development of such natural events, we are dealing with very complex processes […] from the point of view of our specialists, it is practically impossible to predict a disaster of this magnitude”.
In connection with the Shovi tragedy, the Ministry of Interior has launched an investigation under Articles 116 and 240 of the Criminal Code of Georgia, which relate to involuntary manslaughter and violation of safety regulations during mining, construction, or other works.
The local watchdog, the Human Rights Center, called for an impartial, thorough, and effective investigation by the relevant authorities to hold those responsible for the recent tragedy to account. They emphasize the need for transparency and public interest in the investigation, which should address key issues:
- What preventive works were taken out to avoid the tragedy? The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection is responsible for environmental protection and overall implementation of monitoring systems. Establishing whether an adequate civic protection policy was in place in Shovi is important. In addition, according to Article 39 of the Law “On Civil Security,” to reduce the risk of an emergency, the Emergency Management Service is tasked with the continuous identification, analysis, risk assessment, planning, and implementation of preventive measures and projects by the bodies of the state government, autonomous republics and municipalities and public In cooperation with legal entities and private law. It should be determined whether the risks in Shovi have been monitored and, if yes, why the relevant authorities failed to take preventive measures when citizens were already talking about these problems in 2020.
- Was the emergency early warning system operational? The Emergency Management Service is tasked with organizing the creation and development of an early warning system on expected or unfolding emergency situations and collecting and processing the necessary data within the framework of the early warning system. The current Deputy Prime Minister of Georgia [ledged back in 2018 (when he was a Minster in charge of environment and agriculture) that an early warning system would be implemented on the entire territory of Georgia. Thus, it should be determined why the landslide was not predicted in advance through the early warning system, whether the river bed has been artificially modified, and whether the water level in the Buba River has been lowered or increased.
- Was there a delay in mobilizing the equipment for rescue operations? Article 23 of Georgia’s Law on Public Safety mandates municipalities to mobilize and organize emergency response forces, ensuring training and readiness. A helicopter landed in the disaster area three hours after the incident, leaving people to deal with the disaster themselves before that. The Border Police rescue helicopter stopped working at night due to poor visibility, and the bridges were not built until the day after the incident. The investigation should assess the potential for saving lives if rescue operations had been carried out promptly.
- Are the survivors and the missing registered in the relevant lists, and are the search operations conducted properly? The authorities have not published the list of missing and rescued persons, which creates uncertainty, especially in cases where the missing person is a foreign national and is not being searched for by family members. In addition, if the lists were made public, citizens could provide accurate information that would help determine the total number of missing persons, raise public awareness, and guide search efforts.
- Would help from other countries be essential to deal effectively with the aftermath of the disaster? It is important to determine whether additional resources were needed for the rescue, including equipment from other countries. It is important to hold all relevant agencies and officials accountable in case the response to the natural disaster is assessed as ineffective or if it is established that government agencies had the opportunity to anticipate a natural disaster and take preventive measures possible, including informing the population, which would allow to minimize the casualties.
What Climate Change-Related Programs Does Georgia Have?
According to information provided to Civil.ge by the office of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) office in Tbilisi, Georgia is among the countries receiving support from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for climate change-related programs, with a total budget of US$74 million. The agreement between Georgia and the GCF was signed in 2018, and the direct implementation of the program began at the end of 2019.
The program, led by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture, envisages establishing technical and institutional capacity for an early warning system. The development will be carried out in 11 major rivers of Georgia, improving seven climate hazards (floods, mudslides, landslides, drought, hail, avalanches, strong winds) and creating forecasting platforms.
The program consists of three components: 1) updating the hydro-meteorological observation network, developing climate hazard forecasting and modeling capabilities, and implementing a unified methodology for climate hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment in 11 river basins of Georgia; 2) establishing a National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS), elaborating legislative amendments, strengthening the regulatory capacity, and updating climate hazard maps; 3) and improving resilience to climate threats at both the national and community levels.
An early warning system necessarily includes four main elements: risk awareness, threat monitoring, analysis and forecasting, communication and dissemination of signals and messages, and availability of local capabilities to respond to received messages.
Importantly for the context of Shovi landslide, the program does not include monitoring of glacial melting. According to the UNDP, this requires specific observations, equipment, and technology.
UNDP said implementing systemic approaches to climate change, including establishing an early warning system, is a “complex and long-term process” that requires preliminary research, data collection, refinement of the legal framework, inter-agency involvement, and the sustainability and effectiveness of new approaches. Although Georgia has already started to develop modern systems for managing climate change-related disasters, such as early warning and hydro-meteorological monitoring, it will take several years and much effort to maintain and fully implement them, says UNDP.
Georgia’s Struggle with Rescue Helicopters
During a recent landslide in Racha, Border Police rescue operations had to be suspended at night due to the lack of helicopters suitable for night operations in Georgia. Despite declarations of intent to modernize and procure new helicopters, progress has been excruciatingly slow.
In recent years the issue of rescue helicopters has come up each time a natural disaster hit, most recently last year after the so-called “Gudauri incident.” The problem of the lack of necessary technical equipment for effective crisis management was emphasized by the Public Defender, who highlighted its impact on human life and well-being.
The media project “Fact Checker” by Georgia’s Reforms Associates/GRASS published an inquiry on August 4 regarding the issue, prompted by his remarks after the Shovi tragedy hit. The Prime Minister accused journalists of spreading falsehoods when questioned about the lack of progress in purchasing new helicopters despite his earlier statement about the government’s intention to buy them.
The matter of rescue helicopters has been one of the key elements of partisan sniping between the current and past administrations. In 2010, the previous administration bought two AS332 Super Puma helicopters. President Mikheil Saakashvili said recently, a purchase contract for seven such helicopters, plus an option of seven additional ones, was made. He said the helicopters were intended for defense forces and rescue operations, but to shield the Eurocopter from Russian threats, they were formally declared as being for civilian use.
The new Georgian Dream administration that came to power in 2012 said Saakashvili bought an overpriced, luxurious Super Puma for his personal pleasure. According to Saakashvili, the new administration canceled the contract with Eurocopter in 2013. That year, the government said it could not sell two AS332 helicopters since the price paid for them by the previous administration was too high, and well-known dealers in the international market refused to buy them at that price.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs spoke about the plans to sell the two Eurocopters and to buy three smaller rescue helos in 2017 when rescuers could not use helicopters to extinguish the fire on the slopes of Mount Matsminda in the capital and used on-the-ground equipment. One of these AS332 helicopters crash-landed in 2018 and was not recovered.
Following the deadly helicopter crash in Gudauri last year, Garibashvili reiterated plans to sell a Eurocopter AS332 Super Puma helicopter purchased by the previous administration and use the funds to buy three new helicopters for various operations. In 2022, the Ministry of Interior signed a contract with Airbus Helicopters to sell back one AS332 and buy three H145 helicopters, paying EUR 26.5 million.
However, to date, the Border Police received no new helicopters: the first H145 is scheduled to be delivered in 2024.
Also Read:
- 07/08/2023 – Landslide in Racha: Live Blog
- 05/08/2023 – National Environmental Agency Says Shovi Tragedy “Caused by Convergence of Many Factors”
- 04/08/2023 – Annual Geological Bulletin Warned of the “High Risk”of Shovi Mudslides in 2021
This post is also available in: ქართული (Georgian)
