On June 21, the European Commission will give an oral update on how Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are faring on their EU membership paths, with Ukraine and Moldova headed for the positive recommendation for commencing accession talks. Georgia’s prospects are less clear at the moment.
After updating the EU Ambassadors in Brussels the report will be shared with the Foreign Affairs Ministers of EU member states at the meeting the following day in Stockholm.
According to the RFL/RL the update will not be a very detailed one and will essentially be a midterm review of the EU enlargement package to be presented at the end of October. The Package will give a thorough assessment along with recommendations on how to proceed with the trio – which will be the basis for the decision of the EU in December on the future of the EU path for these countries.
While Moldova and Ukraine are expected to get green light to start accession negotiations due to the implementation of the EU conditions, Georgia’s case is not clear, with questions arising as to whether Tbilisi is interested in getting closer to the EU. The doubts are caused by the lack of success in fulfilling EU 12 recommendations, attempts to introduce “foreign agents” law and resumption of flights with Russia, according to the RFE/RL.
However, according to RFL/RL there are four reasons why the EU could eventually recommend candidate status for Tbilisi by the end of the year, and why the EU members could agree.
- The first reason is the sense that EU has “devalued” what it means to be a “candidate country by awarding this status to Bosnia-Herzegovina in 2022. The status was given to despite Sarajevo meeting any of the 14 “key priorities” given by Brussels in 2019. The most recent EC assessment of Bosnia was very critical, yet Bosnia still became a candidate country, thanks to some EU states’, such as Slovenia and Austria’s, pushing. Essentially, all European countries (with exception of Kosovo, which is not recognized by some as an independent country) that are now in line to join the EU are candidate countries. Therefore, the logic is that EU should allow Georgia to join the club of candidate states.
- The second reason has to do with the political momentum for the enlargement of the EU and the related sense of urgency. The momentum could not continue for long, as in 2024 EU will be preoccupied with EU Parliament elections and the subsequent allocation of top positions (and related bargaining among the EU members) in the EU Council, EU Commission and the Union’s External Action Service. There is no guarantee that the new set-up will be friendly to enlargement.
- The third reason has to do with the wish not to break up the grouping of the three: Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.
- And the fourth reason relates to the so-called positive reinforcement, as Tbilisi would get the status with strings attached in the form of additional conditions for Georgia to comply with to reach the stage of opening negotiations talks.
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