Jozwiak: Georgia’s Candidate Status Likely to be Conditional

According to Rikard Jozwiak, Europe editor for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Georgia will receive the status of a candidate EU member country “in the end,” however Georgia’s candidate status is likely to be conditional – Tbilisi will probably have to take certain steps to move to the next stage, which will be EU accession negotiations. In his two briefs – of November 3 and November 6 Jozwiak discusses the forthcoming EC enlargement reports and assesses the prospects for Georgia’s EU candidate status receipt.

On November 8, the European Commission will release its annual enlargement report, which will assess ten countries, including Georgia, and will recommend on Georgia’s EU candidate status. On December 12, the member states will vote on the enlargement questions at the EU’s General Affairs Council.

According to Jozwiak, whether or not to grant Georgia EU candidate status will be one of the “most difficult decisions for the European Commission.” He writes that the European Commission “might not issue any clear recommendations,” but instead it might present the findings and “be vague about the next steps.”

Jozwiak also notes that “in the end, it isn’t the European Commission that decides on candidate status…but rather the 27 member states,” and that there have even been precedents, when the member states rejected the European Commission’s recommendations, referring to the case of North Macedonia.

“For Georgia, there is still much uncertainty, with widespread concerns in Brussels and among EU member states about the country backsliding on democracy,” – Jozwiak says. He stresses the “deeply polarized” nature of Georgian politics, and notes that the government of Georgia has been criticized internationally “for its attempt to pass a controversial “foreign agent” law and for the recent impeachment attempt of the country’s president for traveling to see EU leaders without government approval.” However, Jozwiak believes that Georgia will get candidate status “in the end.”

Jozwiak cites EU diplomats familiar with the file, saying that “there is plenty of momentum for enlargement within the block right now and with European elections and a change of guard in the European Council and European Commission in 2024, there is a sense that Brussels wants to move the process along as quickly as it can for as many EU hopefuls as possible”.

He notes that “there are also concerns about separating Georgia from Ukraine and Moldova,” since the latter two are likely to start accession talks soon. “Even if Georgia does get candidate status, the country will still be behind,” – Jozwiak notes. 

As for Moldova and Ukraine, Jozwiak believes that the “most countries are prepared to give the green light to start EU accession talks” with them. As for Georgia Jozwiak, believes that Hungary “may try to bargain” and approve Kyiv’s bid only in case if Georgia, “which has developed strong ties with Hungary”, gets the candidate status. 

Speaking to TV Pirveli on November 6, Jozwiak said that in his view the 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia will be included under the new conditions set for the country by the European Commission. According to him, the upcoming elections will be the test of whether democracy in Georgia has matured or not. He also stressed the importance of Georgia’s foreign policy convergence with that of the EU, saying that the new conditions might include Georgia’s alignment with international sanctions against Russia.

This news was updated at 6:24 PM to include the TV Pirveli interview.

Also Read:

• 02/11/2023 – NGOs Appeal to European Commission to Give Positive Recommendation on Georgia’s EU Candidate Status
• 25/10/2023 – The Blame Game: GD Anticipates EC Candidacy Decision
• 06/09/2023 – Jozwiak: EUHR Borrell’s Visit “the Last Attempt”

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