Expert Paper Recommends Concrete Steps to the West: What to Do Before, After Georgia’s Elections

McCain Institute Senior Director for Global Democracy Programs Laura Thornton has issued an assessment of Georgia’s October 26 parliamentary elections. From 2014 to 2020, Thornton has served as the director of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia. The assessment is a follow-up to the earlier report, published by GMF in May 2024, which identified and analyzed risks to the conduct and integrity of the upcoming elections.

This assessment is based on the September 2-8 “Friends of Georgia” mission to Tbilisi organized by the Black Sea Trust (BST) of the German Marshall Fund (GMF) and the Rondeli Foundation. The mission team met with leaders and representatives of opposition political parties, local NGOs, independent media, election monitoring organizations, senior U.S. and European diplomats, NDI and IRI, the head of the Central Election Commission, foreign policy and security experts, pollsters and disinformation experts, and President Salome Zurabishvili. However, all GD government members refused requests to meet with the delegation. The paper analyzes Georgia’s electoral landscape and the risks to the conduct and integrity of the upcoming elections. It lays out several scenarios that could unfold and recommends what steps the West – the U.S. and the EU – should take before and after the elections.

Key Findings

“A key finding from the mission is that the risks outlined in May – the implementation of the new Foreign Agents Law, attacks on civil society and media, failure of opposition parties to form a united front, the GD government’s refusal to implement promised electoral reform, widespread disinformation campaigns and fear-mongering – remain,” the report says, adding: “Since May, the government has pledged further autocratic measures, including the elimination of all opposition parties and “Nuremberg” trials to imprison representatives from civil society, media, and opposition who have criticized them.”

“Another takeaway from the mission is the belief of many civil society, media, and opposition representatives that Georgian voters have turned on GD and view the election as a choice between the West and Russia. Even with electoral intimidation and possible manipulation, they are confident that GD cannot win,” the report says. The report notes, however, that this belief, was contradicted by those who closely track voter opinions and spend time outside Tbilisi. According to the author: “They report that the top issues for most Georgians are the economy and jobs, not EU membership, and GD’s message of “prosperity vs. sanctions” – understanding Georgians’ dependency on trade with Russia – is resonating. Further, GD’s threat that an opposition victory means war is also compelling for many voters.”

The report notes the likelihood of post-election instability and conflict, whether the opposition loses or wins; A GD victory is likely to lead to allegations of vote rigging and street protests. Otherwise, the government is less likely to accept defeat. “US and EU policymakers must prepare for different scenarios and develop a unified strategy for a volatile post-election period. Georgia’s greatest asset has always been in democracy. Without it, the US and EU must question the relative value of any strategic partnership going forward,” the report says.

According to the paper, a common concern shared with the mission was the likelihood of post-election instability and conflict. Given the often justified distrust of the electoral process by many stakeholders, the mission was told that there would be widespread protests if the opposition lost. The report notes that no one the mission met with believed that the GD would concede if the opposition won, which would also lead to civil unrest.

Recommendations:

The paper stresses that the U.S. and EU should take steps ahead of the elections “to signal to the GD government concern about anti-democratic actions taken, including implementation of the Foreign Agents Law.”

The options ahead of the elections are:

• The EU can impose travel bans on GD leaders who voted for the Foreign Agents Law; [See the list here]
• The U.S. Congress should move forward with legislation to demonstrate accountability to the GD government that claims the U.S. is bluffing;
• The U.S. should consider personal and financial sanctions against select GD leaders, including Bidzina Ivanishvili;
• The EU could consider a pause in visa-free travel for Georgians. (As some NGOs argued, this step would demonstrate in real terms to voters the consequences of the GD government’s actions);
• The U.S. and EU aid agencies should assist Georgian civil society in non-compliance with the Foreign Agents Law, including covering the costs of potential fines and legal fees;
• Financial support for independent media, especially regional outlets, should be increased;
• The U.S. and EU leaders should publicly express serious doubts about the legitimacy of any electoral process with obstructed impartial observation and failed electoral reform.

After the elections, the U.S. and the EU must prepare for different scenarios and act accordingly:

• The international community must stand behind the findings from trusted domestic and international observers about the integrity of the elections;
• The EU and the U.S. should invest significantly in post-election observer efforts, including high-level international delegations to monitor developments and demonstrate support for Georgian civil society immediately after the elections. The U.S. should consider a bipartisan congressional delegation after the elections;

If GD wins and the observers validate the results…

• The international community will need to closely monitor the post-election environment, particularly the government’s response to anticipated protests;
• The EU should consider suspending Georgia’s candidate status until the necessary reforms are adopted;
• The Congress should move forward with legislation on Georgia if GD does not remove the Foreign Agents Law and continues forward with anti-human rights legislation;
• If the country continues on its autocratic path, the international community will eventually have to decide: 1. The value of any partnership with an autocratic Georgian government; and 2. Whether a GD government is a reliable partner, given its ties to Russia, China, and Iran

If the opposition wins…

• The EU and the U.S. will undoubtedly press for a peaceful transfer of power. If the GD obstructs the transfer of power, a permanent cessation of international aid to and cooperation with the government will be necessary, as well as sanctions and revocation of EU candidate status;
• If the CEC declares GD the winner, but the monitoring groups have been obstructed, international pressure will be essential to ensure a thorough process of adjudication of complaints, audits, recounts, and, if necessary, a new election;
• Regardless of outcome, support to Georgian civil society should be robust, particularly watchdog and independent media organizations. Creative financing avenues, as used in Azerbaijan, may need to be explored if civil society space closes. Lifelines to the Georgian people, who overwhelmingly support EU and NATO membership, should be continued through civil society engagement and public diplomacy efforts.

Also Read:

• 17/09/2024 – Campaign Beat: September 10-16
• 10/09/2024 – Campaign Beat: September 3-9
  04/09/2024 – Watchdog Speaks of “Intense Polarization” ahead of Pre-election Campaign, Other Challenges

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