Russia has failed to live up to its promises of a swift takeover of Ukraine. As the war enters its second year, it’s clear that Russia’s battlefield results do not match Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, further fueling Moscow’s desperate attempt to gain the upper hand in the information war. 2023 was the year of the Kremlin’s intricate social media campaigns and expanded global information operations, all aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine and creating public discontent within the country.
The study, “Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened its global information operations in 2023,” conducted by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), examines Russian media campaigns against Ukraine around the world. According to the study, throughout 2023, Russia relied on its rich toolbox for conducting information operations, including the use of coordinated inauthentic networks on social media platforms, exploiting regional grievances with the West, hacking, and forging documents, among other tactics. The report highlights that the greatest intensification of efforts has been registered in the propaganda spread on social media, especially on TikTok.
Regarding Georgia, the report says that the Georgian Dream-led government expanded its ties with Russia both politically and economically after the invasion in February 2022, exploiting popular fears of the war spreading to Georgia, to further cement the government’s pro-Russian stance.
The Kremlin’s information war hasn’t been limited to the West and the South Caucasus. Over the past year, Russia has actively used information operations to undermine Ukraine in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.
The Tools of Modern Warfare
In 2023, the largest Russian-based covert operation was identified on TikTok. In one of the cases, 12,800 different accounts were created with the specific aim of spreading disinformation about the alleged corruption scandal involving Oleksii Reznikov, the former Ukrainian Defense Minister. These videos were later distributed on Telegram and X (formerly Twitter).
The social media of Ukrainian and Western NGOs were often under attack. Their pages would receive a suspicious phishing message sent from an account named “Meta Service”, and as the administrators of the accounts followed the instructions to solve the problem, they would lose control over the page.
To further blur the lines between falsehood and reality, the Russian hackers hacked into the websites of popular Ukrainian online media channels and uploaded news stories about forged official Ukrainian government documents showing corruption deals made by high-ranking officials. These articles were quickly deleted, and the Russian propaganda channels spread the screenshots, claiming that the Ukrainian media had been forced to “cover up” the story. This tactic was used mainly to provide “examples” of how Ukraine is selling on the black market the weapons donated by the West.
In 2023, “Operation Doppelganger” was in full swing. As part of this campaign, almost identical websites to most reputable media outlets were created to spread pro-Kremlin news. At the same time, according to the report, Russia successfully exploited “useful idiots” in the West – “intellectuals and influencers who downplay Russia’s regional ambitions while blaming the West and NATO expansion for causing the war” (the list include: Viktor Orban in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France, and Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany).
Pro-Russian Sentiments in Georgia
Regarding Georgia, the report reads that Georgian Dream-led government has strengthened ties with Russia, using fears of war and “second front” rhetoric to undermine support for Ukraine and advance its own agenda. Over the past year, Georgia has increased trade with Moscow, particularly in gas, and resumed direct flights with Russia, sparking EU and Ukrainian criticism and domestic protests. The Georgian government has also shied away from broader sanctions against Russia, citing the risk of economic collapse.
Meanwhile, Georgian Dream has stepped up its anti-Western rhetoric and initiated restricting laws against civil society and the media. The Government has even accused USAID of fomenting revolution. Russian and Azerbaijani media amplified these claims, accusing the U.S. of orchestrating revolutions abroad.
Case Studies
The report includes case studies providing concrete examples of how Russia and its proxies adjust their information operations according to their interests and targeted countries.
In Poland, false claims targeted Ukrainian refugees, blaming them for the Legionella bacteria outbreak that reportedly killed at least five people in the southeastern Polish city of Rzeszów. In addition, the disinformation falsely portrayed Polish intentions as hostile to Ukraine, including allegations of plans to annex Ukrainian territory. Fabricated content about Wagner fighters near the Polish border was disseminated to instill fear. Russian spy groups were exposed in Poland, leading to arrests on charges of espionage and sabotage.
In Moldova, Russia has used several tactics to increase civil unrest amid the country’s progress toward EU accession. For example, the Kremlin has circulated statements calling Moldova a “NATO testing ground” and pointing to forged documents purporting to show that the Moldovan government has plans for military intervention in the breakaway region of Transdniestria.
In Armenia, after the Nogorno-Karabakh war in September 2023 and Russia’s failure to help, relations between the countries have been strained. Armenia has even ratified the Rome Statute, which obliges it to arrest Putin if he sets foot on Armenian soil. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine blames Pashinyan’s government for the loss of territory and ethnic cleansing of Armenians, calling the Prime Minister a “Western puppet.” Economically, however, Armenia has become more dependent on Russia.
In Azerbaijan, the government’s policy of non-recognition of breakaway regions played a role in the somewhat strained relations with Russia after it recognized the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. After the Nagorno-Karabakh war, however, pro-Kremlin sentiments increased, with Azerbaijani media spreading the Russian narrative that the West wanted to turn Armenia into a “Ukraine of the Caucasus.”
Russian Influence in Latin America, Africa and Middle East
In Latin America, Russian state media outlets RT and Sputnik serve as key communication platforms to advance Russian narratives and interests. Ambassadors also play an important role in promoting Kremlin’s interests by skillfully exploiting the general distrust of the West in these parts of the world and manipulating the issue of colonialism.
In Africa, Russia continues its efforts to engage with African leaders, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visiting several countries and Putin hosting the Russia-Africa Summit. The Wagner Group maintains regional ties despite the death of co-founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Similarly, in the Middle East and North Africa, Russia is using the social media presence of its diplomatic missions to promote preferred narratives about the war in Ukraine. Fake accounts are spreading images of Russian officials and Putin holding or reading the Quran in an effort to win over the Arab world. At the same time, posts have circulated in Arabic claiming that Ukraine’s President ties with ISIS.
What can be expected?
The report emphasizes that Russian information and influence operations, both within Ukraine and abroad, are expected to evolve, exploiting new societal divisions and employing novel tactics. With 2024 being an election year in many countries, Russia may attempt to interfere to sway support towards its allies or away from pro-Ukrainian international actors. In the Western countries, Russia may covertly promote the notion that aid to Ukraine harms their citizens.
“Given the extent of Russia’s operations and its apparent desire to move global opinion against Ukraine, as detailed in this report, governments around the world—especially those espousing democratic values—need to consider the potential impact of their decisions around Ukraine as also ultimately being global. More assistance and aid to Ukraine will bolster global democracy, while a reduction in the same will undermine not just Ukraine but democracy as a whole,” – concludes the report.
Also Read:
- 22/02/2023 – Report | Atlantic Council: Russia’s Information Warfare Against Ukraine Spans Many Fronts
