In October 2024, the Georgian Dream stole the country’s parliamentary election as part of its broader assault on Georgia’s constitutional order. The current protests are best understood within this larger context of defending Georgia’s future, including its European prospects, against a comprehensive assault. To most Georgians, what goes on will be familiar, but at this point, it still is sensible to synthesize developments for a wider audience. 

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Hans Gutbrod teaches at Ilia State University. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and has been working in the Caucasus region since 1999.

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The Georgian Dream is stealing the country’s future by 

• capturing all state institutions and sidelining the constitution; 
• robbing civil space and getting ready to repress civil society; 
• rigging elections through a deliberate and multi-pronged assault; 
• sabotaging decades-old and tested partnerships with its Western friends; 
• attacking citizens who do not submit to this seizure of power; and 
• serving the whims of one man, rather than the will of the people. 

People want their country back. Understanding the overall theft puts day-to-day developments into their plausible broader context. Each grab has been established and documented in detail. Taken together, stealing the country’s future frames what happens at the moment across Georgia. The country-wide protests against that theft, also in many smaller cities, feature EU flags. For many Georgians, the EU represents their identity as a European nation and symbolizes their centuries-long fight for freedom, human dignity, security, and welfare. 

Capturing All State Institutions & Sidelining the Constitution

From the beginning of its tenure, but especially after 2021, the Georgian Dream has captured the country’s key institutions. This capture includes practically all the courts; regulatory institutions, including the Central Election Commission; since 2023, the National Bank of Georgia, previously highly respected for its independence; especially since 2021, practically all cultural institutions, which now are headed up by Georgian Dream loyalists. The presidency is the one institution that, up until now, was not under control. This is set to change in mid-December when an undistinguished nativist hardliner will be appointed into the role. 

Robbing Public Space and Getting Up to Repress Civil Society 

With the law on “transparency of foreign influence,” passed in May 2024, the Georgian Dream has robbed the country of civic space. This “repress anyone you want” law imposes overwhelming reporting requirements on all of civil society, not just politically active organizations; gives the government sweeping powers of supervision; furnishes it with the ability to impose devastating fines for tiny infractions; and also allows for intrusion into citizens’ lives, including health and other information. The law also constrains media organizations. 

Less visible, but also relevant to the context, is that there has been a return of corruption and nepotism on a massive scale, especially since 2021, with a tiny elite plundering the country at the expense of the people. 

Rigging Elections through a Multi-pronged Assault

The Georgian Parliamentary Election of 2024 saw a multi-pronged assault on electoral integrity, including unprecedented vote-buying, mass intimidation, systematic breaching of voter secrecy, and numerous other irregularities. The officially announced results cannot be seen as reflecting the will of the Georgian people. The announced results are at stark variance to credible exit polls, and pre-election surveys also show extensive statistical irregularities. Instead of investigating these concerns and admitting a legal challenge, the authorities have deflected, refused to publish data, or not answered elementary questions about their conduct. 

Next to extensive irregularities, the Georgian Dream led a hyper-divisive campaign, threatening citizens that any alternative to its rule entailed obliteration. While such campaigns are not illegal, they undercut a democracy’s fabric and contribute to the sense that the Georgian Dream relies on rule through subjugation rather than on governance that delivers for the people.

Sabotaging Georgia’s Established Partnerships

The Georgian Dream is destroying the country’s partnerships. Georgians hold Western countries in high esteem. Russia is popular with less than 10% of the population. The Kremlin is highly disliked by the overwhelming majority, especially among the youth. There are some wedge issues, such as minority rights, but in an everyday context, they have limited salience. The majority of the population dislikes that the Georgian Dream, especially Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, have taken a confrontational course against Western partners, disparaging Western governments; charging ambassadors with lying; alleging that they were funding terrorism; and even claiming, at one point, that a senior EU official had threatened assassination. This fractiousness is unpopular even among most core Georgian Dream supporters. They crave stability rather than confrontation. 

Most people understand that living in a complex region requires statecraft. By contrast, shredding solid partnerships tilts a balance rather than contributing to it. Good relations with the West have a direct impact on people’s lives. Georgian students greatly value educational opportunities such as the ERASMUS program, or American high school exchange programs. Employment in companies with Western-style management, benefits, and worker protection is also popular. In recent years, Western investors have fled Georgia. Practically none are coming now, also amidst spiraling corruption. To seek better livelihoods, Georgians have to leave the country, contributing to mass emigration. 

In the meantime, Georgia’s EU accession is halted, the U.S. has stopped its strategic partnership, and several countries, including Sweden, have stopped bilateral assistance to the government. 

Attacking Citizens Who Do Not Submit

Earlier in 2024, the respected British-American historian Stephen Jones wrote that with his speech on April 28, Bidzina Ivanishvili had “declared war against the Georgian people.” In subsequent weeks, Georgians who protested to defend civic space were subjected to threats, arrests, and vicious assaults. Detainees, including a prominent American-Georgian lawyer, were dragged, beaten, and kicked when on the ground. Multiple detainees were viciously beaten in coordinated attempts to inflict grievous injury. A police chief who, with reference to peaceful protesters, bragged about “beating scum” was lauded rather than reprimanded. After the assaults by police, many of the detainees were also fined with fabricated charges. 

The same patterns of violence began in December 2024, with arrests, people being beaten and kicked while on the ground or while in detention, and dozens of people grievously injured. The Public Defender has highlighted that 80% of those detained reported mistreatment. Civil servants who registered their concerns were threatened with dismissal and other consequences. On December 4, the offices of opposition parties were searched, opposition leaders were arrested, and at least some of them were beaten. In total, there have been hundreds of arrests at this point, and the repression is rapidly evolving. Many of these attacks target journalists and members of various professions, including actors, doctors, and veterinarians, and not just frontline protesters. 

In all this, repressive intent is on full display. For months, the Georgian Dream has been clear: it seeks to eradicate the country’s opposition parties. 

Making the Country Subservient to One Man’s Whims

The question facing the Georgian people is whether they want to live in a country ruled by one man’s whims or whether they want to govern themselves. Prime ministers and soon even the president are appointed at Bidzina Ivanishvili’s leisure, not through a political or constitutional process. In any country, one-man rule puts the people in an existentially precarious position. 

The responsibility for this profound crisis lies squarely with the Georgian Dream. The response of Western diplomacy has been uneven. Resolving the crisis will require a stark turn away from the Georgian Dream’s current wrecking course and towards the establishment of constitutional order — not short-term political maneuvers. This ought to include elections that are conducted to established standards, with an impartial election administration that safeguards the integrity and secrecy of the vote. It also requires an immediate stop to the comprehensive repression and the release of all the detainees. At this point, the one state institution that can still be considered legitimate is President Salome Zurabishvili, originally elected as a candidate of the Georgian Dream, and in the meantime, the lone figure that represents the will of the Georgian people. 

What is going on right now is entirely clear to anyone who wants to see: the Georgian Dream is trying to steal the country’s future. 

Frequently Asked Questions

Here some questions that regularly come up in the current context. The responses are a synthesis of public views, based on being engaged in public opinion research in Georgia since 2006, studying the results of dozens of surveys and focus groups, and extensive discussion across different contexts.

Is this “another Maidan”? 

People do not want a Maidan. They want the authorities to respect the constitution and their rights. The crisis will end when the Georgian Dream moves back to operate within a constitutional framework. It is not a legitimate political strategy to threaten one’s people with annihilation if they do not submit. 

Is Georgia “polarized”?

Polarization is a term that the Georgian Dream likes to use in its justification. Though taken up by some diplomats and commentators, it is a misleading term, since it implies a kind of horizontal clash, like a brawl. Rather, it is a top-down assault on the constitutional order. In substance, Georgia does not have the kind of deep cleavage that one has in some Western countries on core-contentious issues such as abortion, immigration or gun control. 

What are the views in the Georgian Dream?

While one often refers to the Georgian Dream as a political entity, in reality, it is the political vehicle created and owned by a single man. This is not a political party as it is classically understood, with a process of articulating views and positions. Unlike in the communist party, there is no politburo or secretariat. Also, the security forces are de facto subordinated directly to Bidzina Ivanishvili and do not answer to the Prime Minister. They are run by people that used to be part of his protection detail. 

Is there real support of the Georgian Dream?

There is real support for the Georgian Dream party in Georgia. Outside Tbilisi, the core supporters are typically networks of people (and often families) who hold state positions or work in companies benefiting from municipal funding. The main offer of the Georgian Dream in recent years has been stability. Right now, however, the party engages in a radical departure from Georgia’s established trajectory, contributing greatly to demoralization across its ranks. 

Are there other ways in which the Georgian Dream has taken over the country?

The Georgian Dream fully controls the civil service, monitors the Facebook activity of public sector employees, and systematically subdues any dissent. It has assigned SUSI (State Security) officers to most public institutions, including universities. It freely accesses state resources, including government databases, to monitor citizens. Moreover, it first widened the social support net, and now uses it to cajole citizens into submission. 

What about the opposition?

There is not a single opposition. “The opposition” is a term that has often contributed to making sweeping statements and hampered nuanced analysis. One should sensibly talk about “opposition parties”, representing a range of views. These parties have tried to coordinate some of their positions. The coordination, in turn, has taken its time, especially in adapting to radically changed circumstances. 

Might Russia intervene militarily to support the Georgian Dream?

As the Kremlin openly supports the Georgian Dream course, some wonder whether the Russian military might directly support the Georgian Dream government. Many experienced analysts do not consider this a plausible scenario at this point. Russia had to recruit North Korean soldiers to try to respond to Ukraine’s limited Kursk incursion. While significant parts in the repressive apparatus such as Zviad Kharazishvili (Khareba) appear to be pro-Russian, a direct intervention in Georgia would lead to mass defections across security forces and likely a country-wide insurrection. Such an intervention would threaten a strategic resupply route that Russia relies on. The Kremlin would greatly weaken its strategic position by opening a second front in mountainous terrain. 

The scenario of a Russian intervention typically results from a reductive Russia versus the West prism. The regional situation is geopolitically more advantageous for Georgia: the country is a strategic transit corridor for Turkey, Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries. These countries have a strong interest in maintaining a Georgia that is not totally subservient to the Kremlin’s demands. None of this should be taken to suggest that Georgia’s geopolitics is simple, or that the Kremlin does not have leverage. However, the suggestion that there is no sensible option but surrender is the Kremlin’s framing, not a realistic assessment. 

Do Georgians not know that the West and the EU have many shortcomings?

Most Georgians understand perfectly well that the EU has many limitations – and have experienced them in the often-feeble handling of developments in the region by Brussels. At the same time, Georgians have a better understanding than many of the EU’s own citizens of what is currently at stake, and that freedom cannot be taken for granted. (An essay by Nino Haratischwili, so far only in German, summarizes this view, here.) The dislocations of authoritarian rule are engraved in most families’ experience. For many, the EU flag for them is a symbol of reclaiming their own future. 

What may be Bidzina Ivanishvili’s motivation for this high-risk course?

Currently, there are two plausible explanations in circulation. In one, Bidzina Ivanishvili is implementing the theft to fulfill a list of Kremlin demands that have been accompanied by threats against him and his family. These demands include a more formal recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as entities and the removal of Article 78 (obligation to promote integration in Euro-Atlantic structures) from Georgia’s constitution, and may also cover more points. To create the political space for these demands, he is working to remove all potential sources of opposition. The Kremlin may seek to hasten Georgia’s effective subjugation in the run-up to any potential settlement in Ukraine, putting the full Caucasus under its own Yalta-style sphere of influence. 

In an alternative explanation, also widely discussed, Bidzina Ivanishvili (“the loneliest man of the Caucasus”) may be subject to escalating paranoia, with few interlocutors that can dissuade him from extreme points of view. In this context, internal and external forces assist in stealing from the country as they profit financially and politically. These explanations are not mutually exclusive. 

Is the taking of the future not more plausibly characterized as a robbery? 

Given that the assault on the Georgian people is now driven forward with vicious use of force, robbery might be the more apt characterization. In other parts, such as the capture of institutions, much of it initially happened gradually and with stealth and was not widely noticed. 

Are there plausible proposals for a solution?

One of the most comprehensive plans has been put forward by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. This statement, supported by the Socialists, Democrats and Greens Group (SOC), the European People’s Party (EPP/CD), and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), says that 

„[i]n order to now be able to follow a path of a free and democratic Georgia and not one of violence and repression, clear framework conditions are needed in the country and by the international community. This includes:

• new elections that will take place without pressure and under free and fair conditions,
• an immediate end to violence and the indiscriminate detention of protesters.
• the consistent introduction of sanctions by European states against representatives of the “Georgian Dream,” including entry bans and asset freezes
• an immediate release of the detained demonstrators
• respecting the mandate of the incumbent president until fair and free new elections have taken place.”