President Saakashvili spoke about the “positive sides” of Georgia’s cooperation with Russia on January 23, in what appeared to be an attempt to soften strong-worded criticism of Russia voiced after two gas pipelines and a power line were blown-up in the North Caucasus on Sunday, triggering an energy crisis in Georgia.
Saakashvili was speaking at an opening ceremony of a gas turbine electricity generator in Gardabani, south of the capital Tbilisi. The Russian VneshTorgBank invested USD 40 million to purchase the gas turbines.
“I think this is a good example of cooperation. What occurred yesterday [on January 22, when two gas pipelines and a power transmission line were blown-up] is a bad example of a relationship between countries. But today we witness a good example of Georgian-American-Russian cooperation. We are always open for such cooperation and hope that no more bad examples will take place again,” Saakashvili said.
Some political observers in Georgia say that the hard-line stance initially taken by the Georgian President was justified, as it was an attempt to trigger more international attention towards the crisis. But some analysts suggest that blaming the Russian leadership directly for the blasts was an extraordinary reaction by the Georgian authorities, as Russia’s reputation itself suffered from these explosions.
“I do not think that these [explosions] were in the interest of Russia’s top leadership, because what happened is a blow for Russia’s reputation. But there can be certain circles in Russia, mainly close to the military establishment, which often act in contradiction to Russian interests and I do not rule out that these forces were behind these incidents,” political analyst Archil Gegeshidze told Civil Georgia.
On January 22, Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili said that this series of sabotage acts were masterminded by the Russian side in order to trigger “imitation of destabilization in Georgia” and “to increase the Georgian public’s discontent towards the authorities.”
But political analyst Shalva Pichkhadze says that these kinds of acts increase the “anti-Russian stance” among Georgians and “it is not really in Russia’s interests.”
“So I rule out that it was in the Russian leadership’s interests. It could have been masterminded by certain forces; and we should not forget that Moscow does not fully control the situation in North Caucasus and, in particular, in the North Ossetian Republic, where these explosions occurred,” Shalva Pichkhadze told Civil Georgia.
Analysts say that the current crisis should be a lesson for the Georgian authorities.
“We should now completely understand two major things: to think more about alternative sources of energy supply and, particularly, about the Shah-Deniz gas pipeline, and to give up thinking about selling our gas pipeline network to Gazprom,” Pichkhadze said.
The Georgian press mainly linked the gas pipe explosions in the North Caucasus to Georgia’s intentions to demand a pull out of the Russian peacekeepers from the South Ossetian conflict zone.
“The energy war, which Russia was conducting through a manipulation of the gas price, has moved into the ‘hot’ phase after ‘mysterious terrorists’ have blown up the gas pipelines,” the daily 24 Saati (24 Hours) said on January 23, adding that this attack occurred after the Georgian parliamentarians made it clear that they will vote for a withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the South Ossetian conflict zone.
The daily Rezonansi (Resonance) also noted on January 23 that “tough reactions were absolutely expected” from the Russian side after the Georgian senior parliamentarians announced on January 21 that the Russian peacekeepers will have to leave South Ossetia.
It is expected that relations between Georgia and Russia will hit their lowest by first-half of February. Parliamentary hearings about the performance of the Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia will reportedly take place on February 7. It is most likely that the Parliament will instruct the government to launch procedures for the peacekeepers’ withdrawal, beginning on February 15.
Russian Ambassador to Georgia Vladimir Chkhikvishvili warned on January 23 that a withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers may spark tensions in the region.
