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Versions of How Events May Develop in Abkhazia

The Resonance; The Dilis Gazeti; The Akhali Taoba

Prime Minister of breakaway Republic of Abkhazia Anri Jergenia appealed to the President of Russia asking him to declare Abkhazia an associated part of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, Russian peacekeepers take active part in clashes in Abkhazia. The Defense Ministry of Georgia picked up the radio transmitting of the Russian peacekeepers’ commandment ordering 106th and 107ths block-posts situated in Kodori gorge to fire in all directions. “This was the way Russian militants wanted to imitate attack on peacekeepers this way”, the Resonance says.

The Dilis Gazeti covers the speech made by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the conflict in Abkhazia. The newspaper thought the most interesting part of the speech was when Russian President announced that “in spite of the problems in Abkhazian Russia does not refuse to fulfill its obligations and withdraw its military base from Gudauta, Abkhazia”. Despite the announcements Putin made in advantage of Georgia Russian mass media continue information war against Georgia and Russian Duma Council is still on anti-Georgian position.

“Russian experts hope Russia will interfere in the Abkhazian conflict … But in deference from their President they forget international law making it illegal to interfere in internal affairs of an independent state”, the Dilis Gazeti says. It goes on to say that Russian mass media are very much concerned about Shevardnadze’s desire to finally dissociate from Russia.

While talking about Abkhazian conflict the newspaper writes about Shevardnadze having promised the Georgian population before deterioration of situation in Abkhazia that the matter of Abkhazia would be solved soon. “It is obvious that President is aware of more information than others thus he can predict the procedures more”, the paper says.

The Dilis Gazeti also notes that the procedures occurring in Abkhazia may develop in three probable directions. According to the first version, local clashed in Abkhazia will end in the advantage of breakaway Abkhazian Republic and its state independence will become more probable. Such development of events will be deadly for both Georgian government and Georgian state. Thus the government keeps principality, which logically makes one think that Georgia has received some guarantees from the USA and maybe even from Russia.

According to the second version, Abkhazia will de facto and de jure become part of Georgia again. The Dilis Gazeti writes about two possible ways of such procedures development. 1. When Abkhazians see that Russia does not back them up any more they will agree on living with Georgians; 2. If separatists do not foresee new political affairs and continue fighting, this will be fatal for both their politics and their population.

According to the third version, situation will get calmer, local clashed will be ceased and status quo will be reestablished meaning that problem of Abkhazia will be “canned” again, which may result in Abkhazia dissociating from Georgia more and more as time will pass. In this case Georgian partisans will not stop fighting anyway and people living in Abkhazia will always be under tension. Separatist Abkhazian Republic will have to make serious political compromises afterwards, the paper presumes.

Position of the Akhali Taoba concerning Abkhazian conflict is the following: Georgian population will have more faith in its government in case Abkhazia is returned to Georgia; besides, reuniting Abkhazia will be the basis of Georgia’s upheaval. “Shevardnadze has no other alternative left. He has to reunite Abkhazia with Georgia. If he cannot make it through peaceful negotiations then he should initiate a war, otherwise history will remember him as a “destroyer”, the paper says.

by Salome Jashi


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