U.S. Intelligence Links Developments in Kosovo with Georgia

Developments in Georgia ?may become intertwined with events outside the region, particularly in Kosovo,? Thomas Fingar, the U.S. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and chief of the National Intelligence Council, said on July 11.

The top US intelligence analyst was speaking at the U.S. House Armed Service Committee, while delivering a 22-page global security assessment report.

?If Kosovo gains independence without a negotiated settlement over the next year, Russia has suggested that it might respond by recognizing breakaway regions in Georgia, a risky step,? he said.

In June, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, reiterated Kosovo solution will set a precedent and added ?there are no arguments in favor of a position that the Kosovo case differs from the situations in South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transdnestria.?

Putin said that recognition of Kosovo without negotiated settlement would be negative precedent for Russia itself. Observers suggest that what Russia tries to achieve is just to freeze conflict resolution process, both in case of Kosovo and in case of conflicts on post-Soviet space.

?Russia is now pushing for an approach, according to which, the Kosovo issue should be solved based on an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia. If this approach is internationally recognized, a principle of territorial integrity will be overshadowed. It is obvious, however, that the conflicting sides themselves will definitely fail to reach a negotiated settlement and the process will drag out. This is exactly what Russia wants; it wants to legitimize this approach and then to replicate it in case of conflicts on the post-Soviet space,? Archil Gegeshidze, a senior fellow at the Tbilisi-based think-tank Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS), told Civil.Ge.

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