Backgrounder: Georgia’s October 4 Half-Elections

Georgia prepares for what may be the most extraordinary local elections in decades, with part of the mainstream opposition boycotting the vote, while activist and opposition groups are mobilizing crowds for a parallel rally in Tbilisi, with a stated aim of “peacefully overthrowing” the Georgian Dream government.

The municipal vote takes place approximately a year after the disputed parliamentary elections, which led to the opposition’s parliamentary boycott due to allegations of fraud, and just 10 months after non-stop protests erupted in response to Georgian Dream’s announcement to halt EU integration.

The elections take place amid the jailing of dozens of activists and over 10 political figures, including opposition leaders, while the GD government is under fire from its Western partners. In the weeks leading up to the elections, authorities have intensified their crackdown on independent watchdogs and media. The vote is also marked by scant local and international monitoring, with key traditional credible observers absent this year.

While local elections hold little intrinsic weight in a country where municipal governments exercise limited power, the ruling party may try to use the vote as a barometer of the support it enjoys. Having largely failed to present its 2024 parliamentary election victory as legitimate, the party now hopes to bolster its credibility, both domestically and, perhaps more importantly, internationally.

Below are key data and context surrounding the upcoming vote:

Voters

According to the Central Election Commission, 3,513,818 voters are eligible to cast ballots in the October 4 municipal elections. They will vote across three separate lists: mayoral races, majoritarian contests in local self-governing councils (Sakrebulos), and proportional party lists for Sakrebulos. The electorate also includes 47,000 first-time voters.

Voting will be conducted electronically in 2,284 out of 3,061 polling stations nationwide, covering 3,130,348 voters. The voters in the remaining 777 precincts will be casting their ballots in the traditional procedure. Electronic voting, first rolled out on a large scale during last year’s parliamentary elections, involves the use of special hardware and software within the precincts for verifying voters, as well as specially designed ballot boxes for inserting ballots and automatically counting them.

Parties

The vote takes place amid a partial boycott. At least nine opposition groups, most of which had competed in previous elections, announced they are boycotting what they see as a sham vote, citing a repressive environment as well as concerns that their participation would only grant legitimacy to the ruling Georgian Dream party. Still, several opposition parties, including Lelo/Strong Georgia and Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia, chose to run. While acknowledging the climate of repression, they argue that the elections provide a chance to open parallel battlefields and continue challenging the ruling party.

12 parties have registered to run in the elections, down from 43 that took part in the previous, 2021 local vote. Mainstream parties that decided to run in the elections (with ballot numbers) include:

Major forces that are openly boycotting elections, many of whom ran as part of larger electoral alliances last October, include:

Mayoral Races and Tbilisi Battlefield

Two major opposition parties participating in the vote – Gakharia’s For Georgia and Lelo/Strong Georgia – have agreed to cooperate by fielding joint candidates. However, they failed to nominate contenders in roughly half of the constituencies, leaving the ruling Georgian Dream unopposed in 26 of the country’s 64 municipalities.

This leaves the capital, Tbilisi, as a relatively tense battleground, where incumbent mayor Kakha Kaladze of Georgian Dream seeks reelection for a third term. His challengers include Irakli Kupradze, a joint candidate of Lelo/Strong Georgia and Gakharia’s For Georgia; Iago Khvichia of the right-libertarian Girchi party; and Zurab Makharadze, a leader of the far-right, violent Alt-Info group, running under the Conservatives for Georgia banner.

Political Context

The vote takes place amid ongoing protests that began on November 28, 2024, following Georgian Dream’s announcement to halt EU integration, at a time when the party struggles to gain Western legitimacy. It also follows the disputed October 26, 2024, parliamentary elections, in which Georgian Dream claimed a 54% victory amid fraud allegations. All four opposition alliances that surpassed the 5% threshold refused to take up their parliamentary mandates, and many traditional Western partners -including in Washington and Brussels – have scaled back engagement in response to Georgian Dream’s anti-democratic actions and anti-Western rhetoric.

Eleven opposition figures remain in jail, including five party leaders, with four of them serving their sentences for boycotting GD’s parliamentary commission. Two leaders of Lelo/Strong Georgia, Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze, faced similar sentences, but left the jail early after a pardon by GD-elected President Mikheil Kavelashvili, who cited their willingness to participate in the elections. Ex-Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, whose party is also contesting, remains in exile while facing two separate investigations related to his 2019 tenure as interior minister. The ruling party has made clear its intention to appeal to the Constitutional Court to ban all mainstream opposition parties after the vote.

Dozens of protesters remain imprisoned as the GD government has intensified repression in response to mass demonstrations. Independent watchdogs and media outlets have faced investigations, inspections, and legislative crackdowns, including several laws restricting their access to funding.

Election Context

The elections follow the 2024 parliamentary vote, which left unresolved concerns over alleged rigging, including voter intimidation, pressure, and so-called carousel voting that, the opposition claimed, exploited the electronic voting software and hardware. Widespread concerns also emerged regarding breaches of ballot secrecy, as marker stains on the back of electronic ballots exposed voters’ choices.

Following the 2024 vote, Georgian Dream further amended election laws and rules, drawing both local and international criticism. That includes changes in local election rules abolishing the 40% threshold for majoritarian city council (Sakrebulo) seats, increasing the share of majoritarian seats over proportional ones, and modifying vote-counting functions in the commissions to favor the better-performing party. In April, CEC also amended a decree that, critics argued, resulted in further restrictions on the effective observation and the ability of monitors to document violations. 

2021 municipal vote: This year’s local elections also follow the highly polarized municipal vote of October 2, 2021, which drew an unusually high turnout for a local vote as it doubled as a “referendum” on snap elections. Turnout then reached 51.92%, up from 45.65% in 2017.

Who is (not) observing

28 international and 23 local groups are registered to observe this year’s municipal vote in Georgia, down from 29 international and 64 local missions that observed the 2021 local elections. Traditional credible observers will be absent, including OSCE/ODIHR, which said it would be unable to monitor the vote after GD’s delayed, last-minute invitation less than a month before the polling day.

Traditional major local watchdogs, including International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association (GYLA), and Transparency International (TI) – Georgia, all said they won’t be deploying missions all in a break with the decades-long tradition – citing a repressive environment and inability for fair and free elections to take place. Instead, the roster of local missions is dominated by dubious watchdog groups, many accused of meddling in the vote to the benefit of Georgian Dream in the past. Read more about this year’s missions here.

Campaign

Perhaps because of the boycott, the campaign ahead of the October 4 vote has been among the dullest in recent memory. Streets across Georgia are dominated by large banners of Georgian Dream candidates, promising “peace to Georgia, more good to [relevant municipality].” The ruling party launched its campaign by reviving its controversial “war vs. peace” theme, contrasting images of wartime destruction in Ukraine with what it portrays as prosperity in Georgia, and again hinting that siding with the opposition would threaten peace in the country.

In Tbilisi, GD has staged large events to present its social, environmental, youth, and transport policies, regularly attended by top government officials. Tensions near the GD’s main campaign office in Tbilisi erupted into several violent incidents, including unpunished attacks by what looked like pro-ruling party thugs that injured journalists and protesters.

The alliance of Lelo/Strong Georgia and Gakharia’s For Georgia has centered its campaign on promises to reclaim cities and municipalities from Georgian Dream control. The opposition parties have held routine meetings with voters across Tbilisi and offered their visions for solving urban issues, including traffic problems in Tbilisi, unchecked construction, and the prevalence of unsafe buildings.

Despite the campaign’s largely uncompetitive nature, Lelo has accused the authorities of exerting pressure, pointing to the withdrawal of several of its candidates, including majoritarian Sakrebulo hopefuls and a mayoral candidate in Bolnisi, in favor of the ruling party.

Polls

Not many opinion polls were published ahead of the vote, except for one by GORBI, a Tbilisi-based pollster that conducted a survey for pro-government Imedi TV. According to GORBI results released on September 29, Georgian Dream was projected to win all municipalities, including traditionally opposition-leaning ones like Rustavi and Tbilisi, with sweeping majorities. The poll forecasted victories for GD candidates in major cities ranging from 56.3% to 83.8%, including 66.4% for incumbent Kakha Kaladze in Tbilisi, with Lelo/For Georgia’s Irakli Kupradze trailing at 13.5%. At the party level, GORBI projected GD to carry major constituencies with 59.1% to 70.8% of the vote, and 66.4% support nationwide.

According to June poll results by the Tbilisi-based Institute of Social Studies and Analysis (ISSA), only 20.5% of opposition voters unconditionally supported the opposition’s participation in the local elections, while 26.2% said they would back participation only if new parliamentary elections were held in parallel.

With pro-boycott sentiments widespread among opposition voters, turnout may prove a bigger intrigue than the vote outcomes themselves. Yet, given the ruling party’s strong administrative resources in the regions, including its ability to pressure voters, and the scarcity of credible observation, the turnout figures, too, may become a matter of dispute.

Polling day protest

The main intrigue of the October 4 polling day lies in the parallel mass protest rally announced by renowned opera singer Paata Burchuladze, with backing from parts of the opposition and activist groups. The organizers have invited supporters to “peacefully overthrow” the Georgian Dream government. The rally is scheduled to begin at 4 p.m., with promises that by 8 p.m., a transfer of power should be completed. While the details of the plan remain unclear, the rally has become one of the most anticipated events amid months of continuous protest. Read more about the rally here.

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