Report Notes Need for Reforms for Post-War Georgia’s Recovery

A failure by the Georgian authorities to carry out reforms could “create a potentially explosive political standoff,” a Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its recent report on Georgia.

The report released on November 26 says that Georgia may lose “international goodwill” and “portion of the remarkable USD 4.5 billion post-war aid” if the authorities fail to follow and expand its promised democratic reforms.

The report cites unnamed top government aide who told the Crisis Group that Saakashvili “understands fully there is little alternative to reform in the present environment.”

It notes that although President Saakashvili’s position is “at least temporarily secure,” his administration “is likely to be severely tested politically and economically in the winter and spring months ahead.

“Popular dissatisfaction with the conduct of the war and the continued Russian presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, combined with the government’s authoritarian tendencies, slow democratic reform and the growing economic crisis, can provide a fertile ground for opposition movements,” ICG said.

The report, however, also notes that it remains unclear “who could best mobilize the population and towards what goal, other than removal of the current government… None of the official opposition figures are, on their own, a viable threat to the current authorities.”

“Avoiding that contingency is a more immediate challenge to national viability than the continuing confrontation with Russia and the loss in effect, at least for many years, of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” the report says.

According to the report cohesion of the President Saakashvili’s inner circle of about a half dozen top officials, which wields considerable decision-making influence, assures stability.

Interior Minister, Vano Merabishvili, is described by the report as “the most powerful insider after the President.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria; Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava; Secretary of National Security Council Alexandre Lomaia; Justice Minister Zurab Adeishvili; MP Givi Targamadze, the chairman of parliament committee for defense and security and his deputy, MP Nika Rurua are listed in the report as “the most influential” figures of the President’s inner circle.

“Personal relationships rather than formal cabinet positions determine who is part of that inner circle,” the report reads.

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