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‘Crucial’ Presidential Polls Overshadow Plebiscites

Georgia has seen its most vibrant election campaign ahead of the first-ever competitive presidential election in the country on January 5.
 
Incumbent candidate Mikheil Saakashvili’s campaign was most notable, with extensive TV ads, billboards and intense campaigning in the regions. He enjoyed extensive media coverage, according to recent monitoring results, with his New Year message – the only candidate’s – even aired live on TV. To win over voters, Saakashvili focused on social issues, with his TV ads portraying him as a man of the people.
 
Meanwhile, his main opposition rivals in their campaigns tried to capitalize on mistakes or unpopular moves made during Saakashvili’s uncompleted first presidential term.


Both the authorities and the opposition describe these elections as “crucial.”


Most opposition politicians have maintained that a second round of balloting will be inevitable. Davit Gamkrelidze, a presidential candidate and leader of the New Rights Party, has even said that he would, if he lost in the first round, support any opposition candidate in a run-off against Saakashvili.


Based on public opinion surveys it commissioned, the Saakashvili campaign is, however, confident of an outright victory in the first round. The opposition, not unexpectedly, has snubbed the Saakashvili campaign opinion polls, but none of them has provided alternative ones.


Meanwhile, all opposition candidates said on January 4 that the election campaign was unfair and all indications were that the authorities would try to rig the election – an allegation strongly denied by the authorities.


Levan Tarkhnishvili, the chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC), said on January 4 that the CEC had made all possible preparations to ensure the election was free and fair. About 3,400 polling stations will open at 8am local time on January 5. There are 3,352,448 registered voters, according to the CEC.


The CEC also said that over 3,000 local and international observers would be in place to monitor the January 5 election. The International Election Observation Mission (OSCE ODIHR, OSCE PA, Council of Europe & European Parliament) will publish its preliminary findings at 3pm local time on Sunday, January 6.


Two separate parallel vote tabulations will be held by two election watchdog groups – International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) and New Generation-New Initiative (nGnI).


In addition, exit polls have also been commissioned by four Georgian television stations and are to be managed by a group comprising two academic institutions and two think-tanks. Exit poll results will be available as soon as polling stations close at 8pm local time on January 5. These exit polls, however, have already been dismissed by all opposition candidates, claiming that it was commissioned by the government-controlled TV stations and managed by organizations loyal to the authorities.


The presidential election has overshadowed two plebiscites which will be held simultaneously with the presidential election – one on the timing of the next parliamentary elections and the other on NATO membership.


Holding parliamentary elections this spring, instead of late 2008, was one of the main demands of the opposition coalition during the November protest rallies. The issue, however, was almost totally sidelined during the campaign.
 
The other plebiscite asks voters whether they want to join NATO or not. Apart from Irina Sarishvili, who advocates Georgian neutrality, all candidates are in favour of NATO membership for Georgia.

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