Tbilisi seems to be extremely concerned over what it calls “a sudden” and “worrisome” change in Russia’s position over Georgia’s territorial integrity, which was demonstrated by President Putin’s recent statements and Russia’s stance during discussions of the Abkhazian conflict at the UN Security Council on January 31.
Speaking at an annual press conference in the Kremlin on January 31 President Putin reiterated that a “universal principle” should be applied while dealing with ‘frozen conflicts’ and Kosovo can serve as a model for resolving conflicts in post-Soviet space.
“If some one thinks that Kosovo can be granted full independence, than why should we refuse this to Abkhazians, or South Ossetians?.. We know, for example, that Turkey has recognized the Republic of North Cyprus. I do not want to say that Russia will immediately recognize Abkhazia or South Ossetia as independent and sovereign states, but precedents of this kind already exist in international practice,” Vladimir Putin said on January 31.
On the same day in New York, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Abkhazia. But unlike previous resolutions, the latest document includes only a provision about extending the mandate of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) until March 31, 2006.
The standard texts of the previous resolutions, which have been adopted over many years by the UN Security Council, included provisions to support Georgia’s territorial integrity and “strong support” for the document on the Basic Principles for the Distribution of Competences between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. This so called ‘Boden Document’ was drafted in 2000 and envisages broad autonomy for Abkhazia within the Georgian state.
“It appeared that the Russian Federation… suddenly decided to change its position… The policy-makers in the Russian Federation decided to withdraw their support for the basic principle of conflict resolution – the principle of defining the status of Abkhazia within the State of Georgia. Subsequently, any mention of the so-called ‘Boden Paper’ – the document on ‘the Basic Principles for the Distribution of Competences between Tbilisi and Sokhumi’ – is also omitted,” Revaz Adamia, Georgia’s Ambassador to the UN said at a news conference in New York on January 31.
Analysts in Georgia argue that Russia, which up to now was rather hesitant to officially demonstrate its real stance on separatist conflicts in Georgia, will use the Kosovo case to push arguments to pursue its policy of “universal principles.”
“Thus far Russia was recognizing Georgia’s territorial integrity, although it was doing nothing to foster resolution of the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts. But Putin’s statements show the reasons for Russia’s hesitation,” analysts Davit Aprasidze told Civil Georgia.
“Even if Kosovo is not recognized as an independent state, we now know for sure what Russia wants,” he said, adding that Moscow realizes that supporting its traditional ally, Serbia over Kosovo, is most likely “a lost game and Russia will now fully concentrate on conflicts in the post-Soviet space.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on January 31, after meeting of Contact Group on Kosovo in London, that “our western partners” in the Group, which includes the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany and Italy, insisted on including a provision in a joint statement saying that resolution of the Kosovo conflict “will not create a precedent for other conflicts in different regions.”
“We did not agree with this and as a result this kind of position is not included in the document,” Sergey Lavrov said.
Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili told reporters on January 31 that resolution of the Kosovo conflict requires “a very cautious approach” which can not become a model for other conflicts.
But many analysts say that Kosovo will be a dangerous precedent for the way Georgia must shape its efforts to restore its territorial integrity.
“It makes no difference to claim that the Kosovo case is different from Abkhazia or South Ossetia. It [Kosovo precedent] poses a threat to Georgia anyway,” Davit Aprasidze said.
“It poses a real threat. Apart from Russia’s position, the Kosovo precedent will further inspire the Abkhaz and South Ossetian sides. But on the other hand, it is important an important fact that the U.S. and other western partners do not want the Kosovo [situation] to create other precedents,” political analysts Shalva Pichkhadze told Civil Georgia.
But others fear that this support by western countries might not last forever.
“Today we have a unique opportunity, since we currently have the strong support of the international community; but this support is not guaranteed forever, especially if we take into account Kosovo’s case, which, most likely, will soon be recognized as an independent state,” Davit Usupashvili, leader of the Republican Party, said in an interview with Civil Georgia last November.
