Zeyno Baran: Government Should Speak in One Voice on Conflict Resolution

Regional analysts Zeyno Baran, who is Director of International Security and Energy Programs at the Washington-based Nixon Center, says that continuation of reforms will be a major challenge for Saakashvili’s administration in domestic politics, while internationally, Georgia will have to find “understanding with Russia.”

Civil Georgia interviewed Zeyno Baran on November 22 on the sideline of the Tbilisi Forum “Europe’s New Wave of Liberation” marking the second year anniversary of the Rose Revolution. She said that despite shortcomings, mainly in the defense reform, the government “has done enormous amount of work.” She also spoke about the Tbilisi’s conflict resolution strategy and said that all the governmental officials should “stick” to the President Saakashvili line of peaceful settlement of conflicts.

Q.: As a person who closely follows developments in Georgia, what do you think are major challenges for the Saakashvili’s administration both in domestic and foreign policy?

A.: I think that domestically it is to continue the reform process. In the first two years lot of changes took place, but still we need to see investments coming in, jobs being created. Some of the things that needed to be done for years were not done and now we need to make sure that government will be able to continue deliver, so that people continue to support the government. That is, I think, domestically a biggest challenge.

Internationally, it is again to continue reforms in respect of EU and NATO integration. Also to find a way to reach sort of an understanding with Russia, because the way Georgia has previously dealt with South Ossetian issue created unnecessary tension with Russia and if it is important for couple of next years to resolve Ossetia and Abkhazia this government really needs to work constrictively with Russia, without necessarily giving in on essential terms and that’s going to be a challenge.

Q.: How effective do you think is Georgian government’s conflict resolution policy? Some critics say that it lacks consistency and stabile approach?
 
A.: I think what happens is that, Georgian government has come up with very good [peace] plan [over South Ossetia] so far, but occasionally some people inside the government, or people who are known to be influential within the governmental circles make some confrontational statements, those people who want to portray Georgia as aggressive and as unreasonable and want to convince the world that Georgia is only pretending to be peaceful, but in reality they want to build up military and eventually go into war.

So it is going to be really very important so that not having different voicing coming out. The President [Saakashvili] has reiterated commitment for peaceful resolution of conflicts. And I think it is very important that all of his ministers and all of his advisors stick to that line.

Q.: Do you think that some of those chances, which emerged after the Rose Revolution for Georgia, have not been fully utilized and if yes, what are these shortcomings?

A.: When this government took office the Georgian state and Georgian economy and everything was in disaster. This young group of people, with good intentions but with a tremendous challenge, had to prioritize, they had to pick and chose and I think that they have done so far an enormous amount of work. Surely they could have done better, but they have so many issues to do and they are constructively listening to a constructive criticism coming from outside.

Q.: Can you share your opinion about defense reform?

A.: This is one of the most sensitive issues as far as it concerns NATO integration. In this issue there is a shortcoming that everyone recognizes. Maybe this has to become now more of the priorities, because to get Georgia into the [NATO] Membership Action Plan [MAP] and to get kind of response from the western European countries Georgia has to do more on the defense reform. I think I do not need to get into specifics.

I think that there is a patience running out in European capitals. If Georgia does not take the steps it needs to take within the time period that is required for consideration of MAP, then it may loose a very important window of opportunity. And Europeans, NATO, or EU are already tired, they have enlargement issues and they, many of large European countries, lets say Germany, or France, do not necessarily want to upset Russia on this NATO issue, which is so sensitive to Russia. And if Georgia is not doing the best it can do, then they [Europeans] might say lets wait and that would not be a good outcome for Georgia.

There are lots of things that have not happened in terms of institution building and that is one of the things that many of us and Europeans especially want to see. There is a post-revolutionary group of people doing things, they are doing fine, but it should become institutionalized, it should move away from personal politics and that is much connected to the rule of law.