Georgian officials carried out a series of intensive diplomatic efforts in late October in an attempt to defreeze the stalemate in the South Ossetian conflict.
Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli presented an Action Plan at the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna on October 27. Nogaideli arrived in Vienna after visiting the United States on October 21-26 in an attempt to secure U.S. support for this plan. On October 24-25 the quadripartite Joint Control Commission (JCC) gathered in Moscow, where the Russian side, as well as the South Ossetian side, expressed support to the three-stage conflict resolution plan, which has triggered cautious optimism in Tbilisi.
In a period of the past year, the Georgian side has put forth three interlinked proposals over South Ossetia.
The first one was the so called ‘three-stage’ conflict resolution plan, which was voiced by President Saakashvili last September at the UN General Assembly. This plan is more general and proposes a demilitarization of the conflict zone at the first stage, confidence-building and social-economic rehabilitation measures at the second stage and a comprehensive political settlement of the conflict at the third stage.
In January, 2005, President Saakashvili voiced at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) a more detailed Peace Plan, which deals with the future political status of South Ossetia.
Now in Vienna, Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli presented a so called Action Plan – which describes the objectives and steps the Georgian authorities intend to undertake in the coming months and in 2006 in order to achieve a final solution to the conflict.
According to this action plan the Georgian leadership has an ambitious aim to achieve a change in the current negotiating formula – the quadripartite Joint Control Commission (Georgian, South Ossetian, Russian and Russia’s North Ossetian sides) – by the end of this year, by involving representatives of the United States and OSCE as full fledged members of the commission.
The U.S., as well as the EU, have already welcomed this action plan. “The United States has for the first time expressed readiness to directly participate in the conflict resolution process in Georgia, which is of extreme importance for Georgia. We expect a similar positive response from Russia,” Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili said at a news conference on October 30.
At the recent JCC session in Moscow on October 24-25, both the Russian and South Ossetian sides expressed their support towards the three-stage conflict resolution plan. Commenting on that meeting of the JCC, Russian Special Envoy Valery Kenyaikin said on October 26 that despite heated debates, there seems to be “an agreement” on a “three-stage scheme.” Kenyaikin’s description matches, but does not directly refer to, the Peace Plan proposed by President Saakashvili at the PACE, which South Ossetia rejected and Russia refrained from supporting.
This sympathy voiced by the Russian diplomat to the three-stage plan triggered Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution Issues Giorgi Khaindrava, who is Tbilisi’s chief negotiator for South Ossetia, to say on October 28 that the recent JCC session was marked by “a breakthrough, at least on paper.”
However, Moscow and Tskhinvali keep adhering to their negative position towards any change in the Russian-dominated negotiating format, describing the JCC as “the only effective mechanism” for solving the conflict.
This issue will again be discussed at the JCC’s next session, which will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia on November 15-16 under the initiative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel. Meanwhile consultations are underway to organize a meeting between Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli and South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity, which is expected to take place before the JCC session in Ljubljana.
The South Ossetian issue is also expected to be discussed at the OSCE Ministerial Council in Ljubljana on December 5-6. President Saakashvili told Reuters on October 20 that the United States plans to propose new peace initiatives over South Ossetia at this OSCE Ministerial Council.
