Tbilisi and Moscow are watching to each other with a wary eye against the background of parliamentary elections in Russia and presidential elections ahead in Georgia.
The Russian military bases in Georgia and Moscow’s unilateral decision to impose simplified visa regime with Adjara Autonomous Republic heat up recent disputes between the two countries.
Georgian Foreign Minister Tedo Japaridze visited Moscow on December 16-18 to pave the way for the official visit of Nino Burjanadze, the Georgia’s Interim President, to Moscow scheduled for the next week. Burjanadze has numerously stressed the necessity of active dialogue with Moscow to defuse tension.
However, many Georgian, as well as Russian, political analysts are rather doubtful over the Russo-Georgian relations, especially after the December 7 parliamentary elections in Russia, which were marked with the complete failure of the Russian liberal political forces.
President Putin’s party Unified Russia has secured the majority of seats in the State Duma, which is the Russia’s lower chamber of Parliament. The Communist Party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s Liberal-Democratic Party and a newly created election bloc Motherland also secured seats in the State Duma. The latter is led by Dmitri Rogozin, who has close Kremlin links and proposed for several times that Moscow should recognize independence of Georgia’s separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
“I doubt that the election results in Russia will contribute positively to the Russian-Georgian relationship. Until now, the Russian Duma’s contribution to the relations of the two countries was only negative,” Alexander Rondeli, the president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, told Civil Georgia.
Tbilisi-based defense analyst Davit Darchiashvili also says that the election results in Russia “are not in Georgia’s favor.”
“Actually, the political atmosphere has not changed there [Russia]. The ruling force remains the same. Hence, we should expect no good of it,” Davit Darchiashvili told Civil Georgia.
He said Russia does not perceive Georgia as an independent state. “Our country has been always considered as a failed state. No wonder, because we [Georgians] ourselves gave the ground to think this way,” he added.
“If they [officials in Moscow] used Zhirinovsky earlier, now they promoted Rogozin. This is a step back on the way of democratic development in Russia. Russia has to pass a long way to set up new democratic institutions,” Davit Berdzenishvili of National Movement party, led by presidential candidate Mikheil Saakashvili, told Civil Georgia.
The situation between Georgia and Russia has further aggravated after Russia imposed simplified visa regime for Georgia’s Adjara Autonomous Republic on December 9 without informing the central authorities of Georgia. The Georgian Foreign Ministry denounced Moscow’s decision as “a violation of country’s sovereignty.”
“Russia cannot be our partner under the circumstances, when it independently makes decisions and does not meet commitments. It has particular levers, as well as a foothold in Georgia, like Aslan Abashidze [the Adjarian leader]. It is impossible to cooperate under such conditions,” Davit Berdzenishvili said.
Earlier Russia convened in Moscow leaders of the Georgia’s separatists regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Aslan Abashidze, who denounced the current leadership of Georgia as “illegitimate,” also visited Moscow.
Dmitri Trenin, who is the Co-Chair of the Foreign and Security Policy Program and the Deputy Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, told Civil Georgia, that meeting of the leaders of the Georgia’s breakaway regions in Moscow was “a message to Washington that Russia has its interests in Georgia and leverages as well to manipulate situation in this country.”
Russian political analysts are also skeptical over the Russo-Georgian relations. Russia seems to be rather cautious towards the new authorities of Georgia. Dmitri Trenin says that the current situation in the Russo-Georgian relations is like “calm before a storm” and much will depend on Georgia’s presidential elections, scheduled for January 4.
Dmitri Trenin says that the Russian State Duma never had decisive role in formation of the Russia’s foreign policy. However, he says that the composition of the Duma reflects general mood existing in Russia.
“The attitude of those people, including the politicians, media representatives, who influence the formation of public opinion in Russia, is rather cautious towards [Mikheil] Saakashvili [presidential candidate who is widely expected to win the elections], who can seriously aggravate the Russo-Georgian relations and lead to further confrontation with Adjara, and probably to renewal of tensions with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Therefore, the Russian political elite are rather cautious towards Saakashvili,” Dmitri Trenin told Civil Georgia.
He said that the Georgia’s new leadership should be more realistic. “Georgians can imagine, what kind of Russia they would like to see, but it is only a dream. Probably, Russia will not change for a long time and remain the same Russia as it is now. Thus, Georgian authorities should be realistic,” Trenin said.
In one of his public speeches, Mikheil Saakashvili said that Georgia has good relations with its neighbor countries – Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey.
“We want to have similar relations with Russia as well. We are ready to forget many negative things Russia has done regarding Georgia, if Russia recognizes that Georgia is not a slave of Russia. Georgia is an independent state and its opinions should be taken into account,” presidential contender Mikheil Saakashvili said.
Observers say that increased involvement of the United States in the Georgian politics is one more reason for Russia’s irritation.
The U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell in early December demanded from Russia to comply with its commitment and close down military bases in Georgia. Moreover, the U.S. has actively been involved in defusing tensions between Tbilisi and Batumi. U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Miles arrived in Batumi on December 17 and held talks with Adjarian leader Aslan Abashidze.
Dmitri Trenin says that Georgia should not become a battlefield for Russian and American interests. “This will have extremely negative impact on Georgia, first of all,” he said. “It is quite possible to balance the interests of the United States and Russia regarding Georgia,” Trenin said.
It is expected that the visit of Georgia’s Interim President Nino Burjanadze to Moscow will outline to some extent the prospects of the bilateral relations between the uneasy neighbors.
