By Jaba Devdariani, Reported from EurasiaNet: 3/20/03
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze acted March 20 to prevent adoption of a parliamentary measure raising minimum salaries in the country. The fact that Shevardnadze had to effectively veto the measure underscores his own political weakness, and the ineffectiveness of the supposed pro-presidential party in parliament.
Opposition parties had pushed for a rise in the minimum wage since late 2002. On February 28, parliament approved a measure that mandated a 500 percent rise in the minimum wage, from abut 20 Lari, (just over $9) to 115 Lari (almost $53). On March 20, Shevardnadze returned the measure to parliament for further discussion. He also proposed that implementation of the minimum wage hike be postponed until June 2005, the Prime News agency reported.
In recent weeks, Shevardnadze and his allies in the pro-presidential Citizens Union of Georgia (CUG) parliamentary faction tried in vain to overturn or otherwise frustrate implementation of the minimum wage hike. They maintained such a large rise was unfeasible given Georgia’s present economic conditions.
One government minister characterized the parliament’s minimum wage move as “economically illiterate.” Meanwhile, Shevardnadze warned March 3 that higher payrolls “might trigger irreversible and uncontrollable… inflation and jeopardize stability of the national currency. We might witness the same situation as we had during the hyperinflation [in the early and mid-90s].”
The wage hike as currently envisioned would force the government to reallocate 116 million Lari ($53.1 million) to cover increased costs for salaries, observers say. Already the government is hard pressed to meet all of its financial obligations, in part because of difficulties in collecting revenues. During the first quarter of 2003, for example, the revenues fell 40 million Lari ($18.3 million) short of the projected figure.
Experts add that the potential increase in wage costs could easily trigger a financial crisis in a parliamentary election year. Some observers believe the wage issue may influence the election’s outcome by causing a crucial erosion of support for the CUG.
Following the February 28 vote, pro-presidential MPs attempted to annul the bill, claiming its passage violated rules of procedure. A pro-presidential alliance, formed in January, has 118 seats in parliament.
In the December budget vote, 115 deputies voted against the president; at the time, according to local press, his Citizen’s Union party mustered only 11 votes. On March 7, parliament’s Committee on Rules and Procedures, which is controlled by Shevardnadze loyalists, adopted a decision calling for a re-vote, saying the original decision to raise the minimum wage vote was invalid because of a technicality. Opposition MPs responded with maneuvering of their own, managing to keep the bill on track.
Politically, the minimum wage bill has put Shevardnadze in an uncomfortable political spot. On March 17, he accused his political opponents of intentionally trying to force a veto and thus create the impression that he was indifferent to the plight of the large number of impoverished Georgians.
Shevardnadze called a special session of parliament March 18-19 in an attempt to strike some sort of compromise. He reportedly proposed an alternate measure that would have incrementally raised the minimum wage over a two-year period.
However, the special session did not manage to convene for lack of a quorum. The opposition, despite having smaller numbers, appeared better organized than the majority. As one opposition leader quipped “it is easier for the majority to get [Socialist Party leader Vakhtang] Rcheulishvili to return from Moscow than to get some of their MPs out of nearby restaurants.”
Frustrated pro-presidential factions seemed to lose composure, attacking Nino Burjanadze, the popular parliament speaker, and calling for her resignation. Vitali Khazaradze, head of the Citizens Union faction, threatened at one point that he and his colleagues would form “an alternative parliament.” Such statements merely provoked resentment and infighting among Shevardnadze supporters.
According to Ia Antadze, a veteran journalist and political analyst, the opposition seized on the idea of using the minimum-wage issue to manipulate the majority. “This was a carefully planned trick and the United Democrats may make good use of it during the elections [scheduled for the fall],” said Antadze. The United Democrats are led by Shevardnadze’s erstwhile ally Zurab Zhvania, who in recent years has emerged as one of the president’s fiercest critics.
Some observers say the absence of strong leadership in the CUG and affiliated parties will produce more disarray in the coming months. Davit Usupashvili, a legal expert says the pro-presidential camp lacks cohesion. “Several potential candidates, including Khazaradze and Rcheulishvili, are contesting for the leadership in the majority,” he said. “But none of them is able to clearly designate roles and functions of the others, and I think splits within the group will continue.”
According to Georgian media reports, some Shevardnadze backers may lose their jobs over the wage row, starting with Khazaradze and potentially culminating with State Minister Avtandil Jorbenadze. Whatever the outcome, Eduard Shevardnadze enters campaign season with no reliable force to count on in the legislature unless he decides to shift and cooperate more with the opposition.
Jaba Devdariani is editor-in-chief of Civil Georgia
