Movement in the pro-governmental camp
Political engagement of the Socialists and the Citizens Union of Georgia (CUG) was officially announced to the public on November 25. The opposition has so far dominated Georgia’s political arena on the eve of 2003 parliamentary elections. However, it seems that the pro-governmental parties start to make their own moves.
Alliance of the two parties was not an unexpected event in the Georgian politics. Vakhtang Rcheulishvili, the leader of the Socialist party has recently consistently supported the CUG policies and leveled threats against the opposition to create a new majority.
Rcheulishvili’s political innuendos did not go unnoticed. The CUG is recreating its identity as Shevardnadze’s party under the leadership of the State Minister Avtandil Jorbenadze. It seems that following a reflection on CUG’s disastrous showing in June 2 local elections, party’s leadership decided to go for the new alliances.
Rcheulishvili, half-jokingly dubbed the new alliance a “Partnership for Peace,” mocking the title of the NATO program for alliance affiliates and hinting that he would seek the place closer under Shevardnadze’s wing.
The parties have launched the cooperation already on the eve of the by-elections in Saburtalo district of Tbilisi on November 30, when the Socialists withdrew their candidate in favor of the CUG.
Jorbenadze, commenting on this cooperation stated: “it would have been inappropriate if our candidates opposed each other. We are sharing the same voters. We already are in process of consultations regarding creation of a joint block, consisting of certain other parties”. However, he did not clarify which other parties would be in the alliance.
The alliance did not come as a surprise for the opposition. Pikria Chikhradze of the opposition New Rights party told Civil Georgia “It is good that people with similar points of view agree on a certain type of union. It’s better to find out who is with the government and who’s in opposition well before the elections [take place]”.
Vasil Maglaperidze of the opposition United Democrats believes that other parties which “share the same way of thinking, criteria and ethic norms” would continue to gather around CUG.
But Socialists’ transfer into the CUG camp was not a clear-cut case. In the current Parliament Socialists secured their place by running with CUG archrival, Aslan Abashidze-backed Revival Union. In the election campaign of 1999 Rcheulishvili acquired significant amount of votes by criticizing President Shevardnadze and even called for finding the place for CUG in “a trashcan of history.”
Currently moving closer to the governmental party, the Socialists seem to be cutting the ties with the Revival.
Jemal Gogitidze, leader of the Revival Parliamentary faction, excludes any chance that his faction would be in the new majority. “Only those, who are characterized with unstable political orientation, could be thinking of this. I am glad that we got rid of useless ballast – the Socialists,” Gogitidze told Civil Georgia.
CUG also heads active consultations on creation of the new majority in the current Parliament. The Socialists’ leader has been urging creation of the new majority as well, justifying the appeal with decreased efficiency of the Parliament’s activities.
Potentially, the Socialists, plus the three governmental factions – the Citizens Union, the Alliance for New Georgia and the Unity (Tanadgoma) might form the core of the new majority. They are likely to be joined by the faction “Abkhazia”, “Majoritarian” and some independent MPs. However even with these votes the group would not have necessary 118 votes to shape the real majority.
It is rumored that the Industrialists may also join in, which would give the necessary amount of the votes. However the Industrialists themselves do not think that this could happen. “I would dismiss any forecasts of joining or forming any kind of alliance with any other force within the Parliament or during the election campaign,” Zurab Tkemaladze the Industrialists faction told Civil Georgia.
However, it is very doubtful whether the Industrialists will be able to clear 7% barrier in the elections independently. Unofficially the Industrialists have already strongly secured their place in the majority, but prefer to support the pro-governmental factions selectively, on case-by-case basis.
“The fate of the majority would depend on the amount of money the independent MPs would be paid. They always bargain during approval of the budgets, claiming that they want more money for their districts. But in fact big part of the funds goes directly to their pockets. The Industrialists hope that if not this year, the next year the government would surely grant them 7 million Laris. They are so far away from politics. They think politics is just a tool for protecting their business interests,” comments Maia Nadiradze, member of the Traditionalists faction.
If the majority was to be created, one could witness the clash of big egos. “Rcheulishvili, Khazaradze (of the Industrialists) and some other potential leaders are so individualistic, I can not imagine them standing behind a single leader,” says Giorgi Targamadze, member of the Revival faction.
It is true that absence of a majority significantly hinders lawmaking activity of the Parliament. Unorganized sessions, absences of quorum, rejection of bills have become common. This chaotic situation creates favorable environment for private lobbying and shady arrangements.
Thus, Jorbenadze, and ultimately, President Eduard Shevardnadze may feel comfortable even with today’s arrangement in the parliament. Despite all disorganization the government never had difficulties in pushing through the bills it considered important, including the budget.
It is likely, that the creation of majority is just a proxy game for identifying the political forces that would align with the pro-governmental CUG, which seems to have secured the role of the main governmental party once again.
Before the elections, however, the smaller members of the pro-governmental alliance seem poised to avoid the responsibility for the troubles and problems in the country by officially declaring itself a ruling coalition.
By Nino Khutsidze, Civil Georgia
