Conspiracy theories have long been an integral part of human intellectual history. Scholars defined them as believing that a group of powerful individuals is acting covertly to achieve some malevolent end. In democratic societies, conspiracies typically emerge and spread on the fringes, and they are largely met with skepticism and irony by both established political actors and the wider public. In contrast, researchers say that in authoritarian societies, conspiracies “stand as official truths” weaponized by those in power to suppress opposition forces domestically and delegitimize foreign adversaries.
Lia Chkhetiani is a Data Collection Manager at CRRC Georgia. She holds an MA in Political Science from Central European University. Her research interests include political science research methods and techniques, comparative political behavior, and public opinion research.
What Richard Hofstadter called a “paranoid style” of politics in his influential article – characterized by “heated exaggeration, suspiciousness, and conspiratorial fantasy” – has become a central feature of the Georgian Dream’s official political discourse and foreign policy, particularly since the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A prime example of this is an introduction of the one-of-a-kind conspiracy theory of the Global War Party, which has lately also been latched onto more internationally widespread “Deep State” conspiracies.
What is the Global War Party?
According to the narrative of Georgian Dream officials, the Global War Party is the ultimate shadow power manipulating Western governments, bearing responsibility for the war in Ukraine, and orchestrating repeated (albeit futile) attempts to drag Georgia into the war. The GD officials say the Global War Party represents a “vast and resourceful global network” capable of controlling state leaders. Its alleged primary objective is to ignite wars and conflicts worldwide, profit from the military industry, and pursue a specific destructive agenda for Georgia by exerting pressure on Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.
But do people actually believe this theory?
As the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, James C. O’Brien, aptly put it, the Global War Party theory sounds like a “Reddit page came to life.” Yet this conspiracy has significantly influenced the Georgian Dream’s domestic and international political maneuvers and poses a serious threat to Georgia’s democratic and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
To assess the public’s perception of this theory and its impact on attitudes toward the West, CRRC-Georgia conducted a public opinion telephone survey in September 2024. The study aimed to determine whether people believed the Global War Party narrative and how it shaped their political views. The results showed that around one-third of the Georgian population believes the Global War Party is real.
Among those who believe in the existence of the Global War Party, 72% consider it to have a significant influence on Georgia, with 77% assessing this influence negatively. When asked about the Global War Party’s main ally in Georgia, 21% identified the opposition, 6% pointed to NGOs, and 4% believed it to be the Georgian Dream. However, nearly 60% either did not know or refused to answer.
Research on conspiracy theories has often demonstrated that conspiratorial thinking functions as a spectrum – a distinct cognitive mindset that makes individuals more susceptible to adopting conspiracy beliefs. Those who subscribe to one conspiracy theory are often more likely to embrace others. Based on this assumption, CRRC also sought to measure the prevalence of popular conspiracy beliefs among the Georgian public.
The pollsters selected several well-known conspiracies from the Generic Conspiracist Beliefs Scale and asked respondents to assess their trustworthiness on a scale from 1 to 5. The survey revealed that approximately one-third of the Georgian population subscribes to some form of conspiracy theory, with anti-vaccine conspiracies emerging as the most prevalent.
How widespread are anti-western narratives?
The research examined several anti-Western narratives frequently propagated by the Georgian Dream and checked how receptive the general public was to them.
To some extent, these narratives also demonstrate a conspiratorial worldview in foreign policy, underpinned by the assumption that the EU and other Western countries constitute an existential threat to Georgia.
The findings revealed that 20% of respondents believe the GD claim that “The West intends to open a second front in Georgia,” a narrative line
often closely linked to the Global War Party. Additionally, 34% of the surveyed population supports the claim that “the West forces LGBT propaganda on Georgia”, while 31% agree with the statement that “the West contradicts Georgian traditional values and religion.”
Who is more likely to believe in anti-western narratives?
We analyzed how partisan alignment, media consumption habits, and conspiratorial thinking influence the likelihood of believing anti-Western narratives.
The findings show that individuals who watch pro-government TV channels (42%) are 17 percentage points more likely to believe that the West “forces LGBT propaganda on Georgia” compared to those who watch other channels (25%). Similarly, the Georgian Dream supporters (52%) are 26 percentage points more likely to believe this narrative than supporters of other parties (26%).
A comparable pattern emerges with the claim that the West is against “Georgian traditional values and religion.” Viewers of pro-government channels (42%) are 23 percentage points more likely to agree with this statement than those who watch other channels (19%). Likewise, Georgian Dream supporters (51%) are 28 percentage points more likely to hold this belief than supporters of other parties (23%).
The same tendency applies to the claim that the West “seeks to open a second front in Georgia.” Consumers of pro-government TV channels (28%) are 16 percentage points more likely to believe this narrative than consumers of other TV channels (12%). Additionally, Georgian Dream supporters (34%) are 18 percentage points more likely to agree than supporters of other parties (16%).
Relationship between conspiracy beliefs and anti-western narratives
The belief in conspiracies and the receptiveness of anti-Western narratives demonstrated a powerful positive relationship. The graph shows that as individuals score higher on the Conspiracy Index, their likelihood of supporting anti-Western narratives increases steadily and consistently. This interpretation means that the more conspiratorial thinking, the higher the susceptibility to anti-Western narratives.
Following this, we measured how the belief in the Global War party influenced the anti-western attitudes. The analysis showed that those who believe in the Global War Party theory (59%) are 23 percentage points more likely to support anti-western narratives than those who do not think that the Global War Party exists (36%). This finding demonstrates that the conspiracy thinking and the proximity to the Global War Party theory have the potential to negatively influence attitudes towards Western countries, thus damaging public support for Georgia’s pro-western geopolitical aspirations.
To sum up, this research showed that roughly one-third of the Georgian population endorses some conspiracy theories, including the conspiracy of the Global War party. Also, approximately one-third support some anti-western narratives. These are more likely to consume pro-government media and support the Georgian Dream.
Regression analysis showed that people who believed in common conspiracy theories were highly more likely to believe the Global War Party theory.
These findings demonstrate that general conspiratorial thinking is quite deeply ingrained in Georgian society. Thus, conspiracies, particularly when disseminated by those in positions of power, can shape public opinion in ways that impact national policymaking and Georgia’s international relations.