West must prepare for rigged elections in Georgia. Georgia will hold crucial parliamentary elections on 26 October, when the people of Georgia face a fateful decision – to side with the illiberal and pro-Russian party Georgian Dream (GD) that will anchor their country in Putin’s sphere of privileged interests or to take a chance with the newly consolidated pro-Western opposition that will advance Georgia on its difficult path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. However, there’s a real danger that, much like this was the case recently in Venezuela, the votes will be stolen, and the elections will be rigged to safeguard the continuation of GD’s disastrous rule that started in 2012.
This letter to the editor was written by Alexander Melikishvili, Senior Country Risk Expert on South Caucasus and Central Asia
Georgia’s outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili minced no words when she told the Financial Times earlier this week that GD commenced rigging the elections already. Her statement is confirmed by the reputable Georgian democracy watchdog and elections monitoring NGO, the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED).
The compilation of instances of pressure on voters that ISFED released on 15 October, indicates alarming patterns of behavior, including vote-buying by GD activists in Tbilisi, Zugdidi, Akhalkalaki, Kareli, Kaspi, Borjomi, and Khashuri. In fact, vote-buying, despite being a criminal offense in Georgia, is nothing new under GD rule as previous parliamentary elections were marred by such irregularities, especially in the areas populated by ethnic minorities. GD government and its rubberstamp parliament are also making sure that tens of thousands of Georgian citizens, who left the country in search of better economic opportunities abroad, are denied their constitutional right to vote.
GD knows full well that this voter constituency has no love lost for them because they were forced to leave to provide for their families due to dearth of jobs in Georgia. GD is reducing the electoral impact of Georgian emigrants through politicized Central Election Commission (CEC) that has been staffed by GD loyalists. CEC rejected repeated appeals from the Georgian émigré community and civil society to open additional polling stations in other countries with sizable Georgian communities.
Comparison with Moldova is very apt in this regard as both countries continue to experience significant outflow of people. Moldova opened 228 polling stations in 37 countries for the presidential elections and referendum on EU membership held on 20 October. Georgia will be opening only 67 in 42 countries.
To be sure, there has been no shortage of “tough love” messages from the West to the Georgian electorate with the latest being the statement from the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who earlier this week correctly called the upcoming parliamentary elections “a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its European Union path.” The time of such warnings has passed and now it will be prudent for both EU and US to prepare specific contingency plans for what happens if, as is very likely, GD will rig the elections.
Ever cautious and risk-averse to a fault, the Biden administration is clearly waiting for this to impose sanctions against Georgia’s informal ruler, billionaire oligarch and GD founder Bidzina Ivanishvili. Similarly swift response from EU is very unlikely as it is institutionally handicapped by Russia-friendly members Hungary and Slovakia.
Punitive measures targeting Ivanishvili are long overdue but will not be enough. Decisionmakers in Western capitals must think about how to calibrate their response to civil unrest that is sure to follow the rigged elections. Events can develop along several different pathways ranging from the high impact/low probability scenario (in the extreme – a civil war) to a more likely but less impactful repeat of the sustained but peaceful protests that Georgia witnessed in April-May.
Under the latter GD will succeed in retaining power through rigged elections while public anger will dissipate by late December as the holidays approach. For GD losing elections is not an option and they demonstrated already many times that they will use force against peaceful protests.
Ivanishvili openly declared that GD’s primary electoral objective is to garner enough votes to reach a constitutional majority. This is necessary to change the Constitution in order to get rid of the Article 78 which obliges all state institutions to strive towards Euro-Atlantic integration.
But that’s not all, judging by GD propaganda and statements of Russian officials, it’s likely that GD will attempt to dupe the Georgian public into believing in the peaceful restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity, which, in practice, will turn into official Tbilisi’s recognition of independence of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia followed by restoration of diplomatic relations with Russia. It is therefore incumbent upon the US and its European allies to develop coordinated policy responses to a range of scenarios that could unfold in Georgia after 26 October.
For example, if GD opts to harshly suppress anti-government protests, leading to many dead and injured, the collective Western response must entail not only non-recognition of rigged elections but also introduction of comprehensive sanctions that will cripple and isolate the illegitimate GD government.
The pro-Western national consensus has been a constant feature of Georgian public opinion for more than a decade. These aspirations of the majority of Georgians must be mirrored by the decisive Western actions, not appeasement that eventually leads to acquiescence and acceptance of rigged election results.
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