Exit Polls Give GD’s Tbilisi Mayoral Candidate Lead, But Runoff Possible

Two separate exit polls, commissioned by two Tbilisi-based private television stations, show Georgian Dream ruling coalition’s candidate, Davit Narmania, is leading in race for Tbilisi mayoral office in Sunday’s local elections.

But exit poll, commissioned by Rustavi 2 TV to GfK, predicts that Narmania is falling short of clear majority to avoid the second round runoff.

If this exit poll is confirmed by official results, a runoff vote would have to be held between Narmania, who has 46%, and UNM’s Tbilisi mayoral candidate Nika Melia, who has 26%. This exit poll has 3% margin of error.

Exit poll, commissioned by Imedi TV to ACT, gave GD’s Narmania 52.6% and UNM’s Melia – 23.9%. This exit poll also has 3% margin of error.

Direct elections of mayors were also held in eleven other cities on June 15.

Apart of Tbilisi, Rustavi 2 TV’s exit polls also covered mayoral races in six other cities, which show that in at least four of them there will be second round runoffs.

GD’s mayoral candidate in Zugdidi is set to win outright in the first round with 59.9%, followed by UNM’s candidate – 29.7%.

In Georgia’s second largest city, Kutaisi, GD’s candidate leads with 52.5%, followed by UNM candidate – 26.9%.

According to Rustavi 2 TV exit polls GD’s candidate in Batumi has 46.2% and UNM’s candidate – 14.7%.

Second round runoff is likely also in Rustavi, where GD’s candidate garnered 37.4% and UNM’s candidate – 26.3%, according to Rustavi 2 TV exit polls.

In Telavi GD candidate has 46.7% and UNM mayoral candidate – 19.7%.

In Gori GD candidate has 40.8% and a candidate named by ex-defense minister Irakli Okruashvili’s party has 32.3%.

In party-list contest for Tbilisi City Council, Sakrebulo, Georgian Dream coalition leads with 47.8%, followed by UNM with 26.1%, Burjanadze-led coalition, United Opposition – 8.3% and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia – 5.8%, according to Rustavi 2 TV exit polls. Imedi TV’s exit polls show the same pattern.

If these exit polls are confirmed by official results, it means that no other party is clearing 4% threshold required to endorse its members to Tbilisi Sakrebulo through party-list, proportional contest. Half of the 50-member Tbilisi Sakrebulo’s seats are distributed through proportional elections and another half is contested in twenty five single-mandate constituencies between majoritarian candidates.


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