U.S. Intelligence Chief on Georgia

Unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus are “the most likely flashpoints” in the Eurasia region, Dennis Blair, director of U.S. national intelligence, said in annual threat assessment.

“Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s separatist regions and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting,” he said in a prepared testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 3.

The similar opinion was expressed in the previous threat assessment last year.

Dennis Blair also said that last year Russia showed some signs that it was prepared to be more cooperative with the U.S., including on Afghanistan and Iran.

“I remain concerned, however, that Russia looks at relations with its neighbors in the former Soviet space—an area characterized by President Medvedev as Russia’s ‘zone of privileged interests’ — largely in zero-sum terms, vis-à-vis the United States, potentially undermining the US-Russian bilateral relationship,” Dennis Blair said.

He also said that Moscow remained capable of militarily dominating the former Soviet space, “although Russia’s experience in the August 2008 Georgia conflict revealed major shortcomings in the Russian military.”

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