Saakashvili Campaign Releases Public Opinion Survey

Incumbent presidential candidate Mikheil Saakashvili has a strong lead over his opponents and can win an outright majority in the first round of elections, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) Research, commissioned by the Saakashvili’s campaign, said on January 3, just two days before the polling day.

The survey was based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 voters throughout Georgia, conducted between December 5-13. Field work was carried out by the local research group, ACT, with the methodology developed by GQR.

Saakashvili has the support of 42% of those surveyed, followed by Levan Gachechiladze with 19%; Badri Patarkatsishvili – 11%; Shalva Natelashvili – 5%; Davit Gamkrelidze – 4% and Gia Maisashvili – 1%; 2 percent would not vote or spoil their vote, and 16 percent were undecided, according to the GQR survey.

Of the 71% of voters who are most likely to vote on January 5, Saakashvili has 46%; Gachechiladze – 16%; and Patarkatsishvili 11%; among these likely voters, 17% are undecided.

By examining how the undecided voters may eventually vote, GQR concluded that Saakashvili may emerge with 52% in a first round ballot, followed by Gachechiladze with 21% and Patarkatsishvili with 14%.

The margin of sampling error for the subset of likely voters is plus or minus 3.4%, according to GQR.

GQR executive vice president, Dr. Jeremy Rosner, told a group of journalists in a phone conference on January 3, that this figure – 52% – is a result of “a very conservative” methodology that GQR used.

He also pointed out that the survey was carried out before the events surrounding Badri Patarkatsishvili, referring to covertly recorded compromising video and audio tapes released by the Georgian authorities implicating Patarkatsishvili and his allies in an alleged coup plot.

“Our prediction of 52% for Saakashvili is both conservative and informed by our experience around the world,” he said. “Events since December 13 might actually drive that figure higher.” He also added that there should be “no significant sense of surprise either within Georgia or in the international community” about these results.

According to the survey even if the election were to go to a second round, Saakashvili would win among likely voters by a margin of 54-33% against Gachechiladze, and 54-32% against Patarkatsishvili.