Analysts in Georgia think the upcoming talks between the Georgian and Russian leaders next week will at least slightly defuse some of the harsh-worded rhetoric that has emerged between the two neighbors as of late, but will most likely have only a short-term effect.
Russian President Vladamir Putin will host his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili in St. Petersburg on June 13. President Saakashvili said “tough issues” topping bilateral relations will be discussed at the meeting, which he described as another attempt to extend a hand of friendship to Russia and stressed that Russo-Georgian relations should be based on the principle of the “absolute inviolability” of Georgia’s territorial integrity. Georgian officials have indicated that the secessionist conflicts are expected to top the agenda of these bilateral talks
Alex Rondeli, President of Tbilisi-based think-tank Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS), says that this face-to-face talk is a positive step in itself, especially against the background of relations “which are almost like between enemies.”
“But I don’t think that ether Georgia’s or Russia’s positions over the major issues will change as a result of this meeting,” Rondeli told Civil Georgia on June 5.
He said Russia is not keen on contributing to the resolution of the secessionist conflict in Georgia.
“Currently, Russia is a monopolist in the peace processes [both in Abkhazia and Abkhazia] and Russia will give up lose this leverage in order to somehow hinder our Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” Rondeli added.
In an article published by the Georgian daily 24 Saati (24 Hours) on June 5, Davit Darchiashvili, Chief of the Open Society – Georgia Foundation, also emphasized this link between Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspiration and resolving the country’s secessionist conflicts.
He says in his article that Georgia has two major priorities: restoration of its territorial integrity and strategic partnership with the U.S./NATO membership.
Darchiashvili suggests that Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations are the most sensitive issue for Russia and Moscow “can show more understanding regarding the first issue [territorial integrity] if we show a more restraint approach towards the second one.”
“As long as the Georgian leadership shows no sign of saying ‘no’ to any of these priorities, talks with Russia will be extremely difficult,” Darchiashvili said.
He suggested that Georgia’s position during talks with the Russian leadership will be strongly backed if there is a firm agreement on the following principle among the Georgian society: “Tbilisi should agree on cooperation with Abkhazia to solve any issue on a parity basis, but with the precondition that resolution of the issue of status will be postponed.”
Darchiashvili said next step should be bilateral talks between Saakashvili and Abkhaz leader Sergey Bagapsh.
Davit Aprasidze, dean of the Political and Social Sciences Department at Tbilisi State University, also thinks that no tangible progress in respect to conflict resolution issues is expected to be made during this meeting between the two Presidents.
“A comprehensive resolution of these conflicts can only start after Georgia’s possible NATO membership becomes finally clear,” Aprasidze said.
He said that the upcoming meeting can only temporarily stop the exchange of accusations between Tbilisi and Moscow.
“Russia may, at least for time being, stop making statements regarding the right [of the secessionist regions] to self-determination and drawing parallels between Kosovo and Abkhazia, or South Ossetia; but it does not mean that Russia will remove these issues from its political agenda,” Davit Aprasidze told Civil Georgia on June 5, adding that resolving problems related with Russia’s ban on the import of Georgian wine and mineral waters are also not anticipated.
Some opposition politicians have also welcomed the upcoming talks between the two Presidents.
“Even if it will be a kind of a symbolic meeting it is still a very positive step, because it will show that against the background of extremely tense relations there still remains room for dialogue,” MP Pikria Chikhradze of the opposition New Rights party, told Civil Georgia on June 5.
