Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili will meet his Moldovan counterpart Vladimir Voronin in Chisinau on March 2, one day after the latter paid a surprise visit to Kiev, where he met with Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko. This series of talks comes just four days before parliamentary elections in Moldova, scheduled for March 6.
Saakashvili’s visit to Moldova was also a surprise. It was agreed on February 28 following a telephone conversation between Voronin and Saakashvili. The latter even had to postpone his official visit to Italy for one day because of the unscheduled trip to Chisinau.
Medea Akhalkatsi, the Head of Georgian President’s Press Office told Civil Georgia on March 2 that the two Presidents plan to sign a document. She could not elaborated about the details of this document but some reports indicate that this will be similar to the one signed by Saakashvili and Yushchenko in January, known as the Karpat Declaration.
The Karpat Declaration alluded to a “third wave of democratization” based on the recent, peaceful revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine.
Georgian President’s spokesperson Alana Gagloeva announced on March 1 the Saakashvili’s meeting with Voronin is not aimed at influencing the elections in Moldova and that Saakashvili merely voices his support for elections based on “principles of freedom and independence, expressed in the Karpat Declaration.
Increased diplomatic activity between Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine (the Georgian President plans to visit Ukraine in mid-March) has already been described by both the Georgian and Russian media as an attempt to form a new coalition on the territory of the Russian-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States.
In an article published on March 2 the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta described these increased diplomatic activities between Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova as an attempt to form, as the newspaper put it, an “anti-Russian, triple alliance.” In an article published on March 2, the Georgian daily 24 Hours described Moldova as “a candidate state” willing to join Georgia-Ukraine’s “anti-Russian coalition.”
Re-vitalization of GUUAM – an informal grouping of former Soviet states Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, is seen as the basis for this coalition.
Secretary of Georgia’s Security Council Gela Bezhuashvili told reporters on March 1 that President Saakashvili will touch upon the possibility of “reorganizing” GUUAM during his visit to Moldova. Bezhuashvili said GUUAM’s role after the velvet revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia should change and it should play a role in “promoting democracy in the post-Soviet space.”
The issue of revitalizing GUUAM was raised by Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko during the visit of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli to Kiev on February 28.
An informal grouping of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova was established in 1997 on the margins of cooperation of the states interested in implementation of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty – i.e. the pullout of the Russian troops from Moldova and Georgia. The grouping later concentrated on energy transportation projects and Uzbekistan joined in 1999. The grouping has been practically defunct, after the election of the current president of Moldova on a pro-Russian platform and as both the Uzbekistan authorities and Leonid Kuchma’s Ukraine lost interest in promoting the organization.
“These talks [between Saakashvili and Voronin] can be viewed as an attempt to re-vitalize the GUUAM and this is a very positive moment for Georgia,” Alexander Rondeli, who chairs the Tbilisi-based think-tank Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, told Civil Georgia.
But the political analyst also indicates that Saakashvili’s visit will have a positive impact personally on Voronin, ahead of parliamentary elections.
“Saakashvili travels to Moldova upon the invitation by Voronin, who is experiencing problems in internal politics. I think this means that he [Voronin] is trying to boost his popularity on the eve of the elections. His trip to Ukraine can also be explained by this same reason,” Rondeli said.
He also said that the creation of a strong coalition on the territory of the CIS is vital for Georgia, “as Tbilisi will not be alone any more against its former master – Russia.”
“Georgia will have more independence and more options for maneuvering,” he added.
“On the other hand, Saakashvili’s visit is also important because this will help avoid the overshadowing of Georgia by Ukraine. So Saakashvili’s decision to travel to Moldova was a good decision,” Rondeli said.
Georgian and Moldova share similar problems in their relationship with Russia: carry-over Russian military bases and secessionist conflicts.
In an interview with the Russian daily Izvestia published on March 2 Vladimir Voronin said, while answering a question regarding why there are tensions between Chisinau and Moscow, “there is one reason: the unsolved conflict in Transdnestria. Moscow and Chisinau have different approaches to the resolution of this conflict.”
