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| Bagapsh’s (left) only real challenger in poll will be a possible low voter turnout. Reuters photo |
Breakaway Abkhazia will go to the polls to elect a new leader of the region on January 12 for the second time in the past three months, as last October’s elections failed to reveal a President because of a post-election crisis that pushed the region to the brink of civil war.
Along with frontrunner presidential candidate Sergey Bagapsh, leader of the People’s Party of Abkhazia Iakub Lakoba is also running for the presidency, though few analysts feel the latter has a real chance of victory. In the event of a Bagapsh win, his former rival Raul Khajimba will take over the Vice-Presidential position and will be in charge of defense and security, as well as foreign policy issues.
Commentators note that Sergey Bagapsh’s only real challenger in upcoming poll will be a possible low voter turnout that may threaten the validity of the elections.
On the eve of the elections, reports have emerged in both the Abkhaz and Georgian media that supporters of outgoing President Vladislav Ardzinba, and especially Prime Minister Nodar Khashba, are preparing the public for a possible cancellation of the results of the upcoming presidential election. The reports claim that Khashba is concerned that after elections that would establish Sergey Bagapsh as a president, Khashba would lose his political and financial influence.
Khashba, formerly a high-ranking official of the Russian Ministry for Emergencies, was, according to his own statement, sent to Abkhazia by Russian President Vladimir Putin to stabilize the situation after the heated October 3, 2004 elections.
Presidential candidate Iakub Lakoba also hinted at the threat of an annulled election result when he expressed concern, on January 10, regarding inaccurate voter lists. “There are 168,000 eligible voters in Abkhazia. During the October 3 presidential elections there were 137,000 voters registered. Now the number has decreased to 113,000. This means that every third voter will be deprived of the right to vote [in the upcoming poll],” Abkhaz news agency Apsnipress reported quoting Iakub Lakoba as saying.
“People are tired, not with elections but with lies. That is why the notion is circulating in society that the voters will not go to the polling stations and that elections will be thwarted. This is not good, but we can not blame people for this,” Iakub Lakoba added.
Recently, several public movements, mainly associated with outgoing President Vladislav Ardzinba, denounced the upcoming polls as “disorganized” and demanded that the elections be postponed.
Apsnipress news agency reported, on January 10, that the newly set up public-political movement Aiaaira (Victory) announced that the holding of elections on January 12 will be inadmissible, as more preparations need to be carried out. Earlier, on January 8, the public movement Akhiatsa also announced that holding of elections on January 12 would be inappropriate.
Meanwhile, a group of Russian officials, led by Sergey Baburin, Vice-Speaker of the Russian State Duma Council, which is the lower house of the Parliament, arrived in the Abkhaz capital Sokhumi to monitor the elections.
This presence of Russian officials has already triggered protest from Tbilisi, which denounced the Abkhaz elections as illegitimate. “Russia is the only country which is officially sending observers to the forthcoming presidential elections in Abkhazia,” Goga Khaindrava, Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution Issues, told reporters on January 10.
Vice-Speaker of the Russian Parliament Sergey Baburin is visiting Sokhumi for the second time in the last two months. He was among those Russian officials who helped Sergey Bagapsh and Raul Khajimba reach a compromise last December.
The first-ever contested presidential election in Abkhazia, which occurred on October 3, 2004, was followed by a post-election dispute between the two main presidential rivals – opposition leader Sergey Bagapsh and pro-governmental candidate Raul Khajimba, who also enjoyed Moscow’s support. As a result, Abkhazia was hit by two months of political crisis.
Following the showdown between Khajimba and Bagapsh the two sides were forced into a compromise by Russia. After it became clear that Khajimba was losing the standoff, Moscow imposed economic sanctions against Abkhazia by closing its railway connection with the de facto republic and banned all import of agricultural products from Abkhazia in an unspoken effort to mount pressure on Bagapsh.
In December the once former presidential rivals Bagapsh and Khajimba agreed to share power and participate in new elections on one team.
