Military buildup of the US forces in the Middle East makes most analysts concede that the war with Iraq is only a matter of time. Against this background, Georgian military officials hope to extend their military cooperation with the US and the NATO.
The UN weapons inspectors in Iraq will deliver their final report to the UNSC at the end of January and either support or reject claims of the United States administration. If their reports are negative, or even leave some room for suspicion that Iraqi government possesses or plans to acquire the weapons of mass destruction, the US or allied military operation would become imminent.
It is of no doubt that the air operations would be widely used in the opening phase of the campaign. However, the significant number of the land forces deployed in the area show that this time the US military planners foresee the “regime change” perhaps followed by the peacekeeping or the peace enforcement operations.
Leaks from the official circles show that Georgian politicians and the military would like to see their participation in a possible campaign. A source at the Georgian Defense Ministry, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Civil Georgia that currently the Georgian and the US governments are holding consultations on use of a Georgian military airbase by the US forces. However, Georgia did not so far receive any official requests on use of its military facilities by the US troops.
Georgia is 400 kilometers away from the northern borders of Iraq and 1000 kilometers – from the country’s central regions. While the Turkish military bases, especially the one in Incirik, are much more conveniently located, Irakli Aladashvili, independent military analyst believes the US would also seek the “backup options” especially for the logistical support. He says that the Georgian territory will be used to supply America’s Kurd allies in the northern Iraq.
In this regard Georgia can offer three bases: Vaziani (near capital Tbilisi), Shiraki (in Kakheti region) and Marneuli base in South Georgia. Marneuli base was recently repaired with assistance of the Turkish military, however the experts consider the Shiraki airstrip most suitable for the heavy military transport aircraft.
Dr. Ariel Cohen, research fellow on Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Heritage Foundation told Civil Georgia that “there is a possibility” of Georgia offering the US and its allies its airfields. Kakha Katsitadze, Deputy Chief of Staff of Georgia, also considers this possible. He says, “technically, Georgian bases are important [for the US].”
Another possibility, which was hinted at by the Georgian military officials concerns participation of the US-trained Georgian troops in a battle or support operations in Iraq.
Ariel Cohen says he does not see participation of the Georgian troops in such operation. “They are needed for the protection of Georgian soil and for fighting real terrorist and insurgent threats that, unfortunately, the Georgian soil grows in such abundance,” Cohen adds.
Zeyno Baran, Director for International Security and Energy Programs at the Washington-based Nixon Center agrees that the possibility of the Georgian troops fighting side by side with the US forces is unlikely. Baran told Civil Georgia such speculations can be an attempt by some Georgians “to be relevant” in the context of the new US campaign.
At any rate, if the Pentagon expresses intention to use Georgian airstrips, permission of the Parliament of Georgia will be necessary. And, as most analysts of the Georgian politics believe, the Georgian partisan leadership definitely will not be against.
Stephen J. Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute believes, that it is hypothetically possible that Georgia might actively participate in a war against Iraq. Dr. Blank adds though, he does not think, “it is likely or necessarily desirable for Georgia to do so.”
So far, however, Georgian politicians cherish hopes for proving once again their allegiance to the Western powers in a shared battle against terrorism threat. In this game, it seems, short-term gains are accorded higher value than the possible longer-term repercussions.
By Revaz Bakhtadze,
Jaba Devdariani contributed to this article
