Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on July 16 thata renewal of an armed conflict in breakaway South Ossetia has been avoided as a result of an agreement signed by the Georgian, South Ossetian, Russian and North Ossetian sides in Moscow on July 15.
But Tbilisi’s main concern – control over the strategic Roki pass, which links the breakaway region with its neighboring Russia’s North Ossetian Republic – remained ignored by the protocol signed in frames of a quadripartite Joint Control Commission (JCC) in Moscow.
In his televised comments on July 16 President Saakashvili said “around 260 armed volunteers, including some from [Georgia’s breakaway] Abkhazia and [Russia’s] North Ossetia have already left the region after orders from Moscow.” During the early days of crisis in South Ossetia Mikheil Saakashvili accused “certain forces in Russia” of attempting to provoke a fresh armed conflict in the restive region.
“Withdrawal of these illegal armed groups from the conflict zone was one of the main reasons of signing this protocol. We can preserve peace in the region,” the Georgian President said.
The agreement was hailed by both Moscow and Washington as well. Visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the deal as “a positive” step towards peace. U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Mile also welcomed the agreement after the talks with Secretary of the Georgian National Security Council Gela Bezhuashvili on July 17.
President Saakashvili downplayed the fact that the Georgian side’s proposal over setting up a joint Georgian-Russian checkpoint at the Roki pass was ignored during the Moscow talks. He said that the gaining control over the tunnel at Roki pass is merely “a matter of time.” “We continue consultations over this issue with the Russian side,” he added.
Alexandre Rondeli, who chairs the think-tank, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, says that Russia’s hard stance over the Roki pass was anticipated.
“Gaining control over the Roki pass is equal to regaining control over South Ossetia; hence the fact that Moscow made no compromise over this issue was not strange,” Alexandre Rondeli told Civil Georgia.
The tunnel, which lies at Roki pass, is the only road connecting Georgia’s breakaway South Ossetia with Russia. In the early 1990s, when an armed struggle erupted in the region and resulted in South Ossetia’s de facto secession, Tbilisi demanded shutting down the tunnel, as it was the only way to supply South Ossetian separatists with weapons from Russia. Now Tbilisi demands, instead, the creation of a joint Russian-Georgian checkpoint at Roki pass in order to, as Georgian officials put it, “prevent smuggling and arms trafficking in the region.”
Alexandre Rondeli says that the Georgian government’s vigorous attempts, backed by the western powers, aimed at regaining control over the breakaway region leaves no room for Russia to maneuver.
“Given President Saakashvili’s current activities, Russia has fewer chances for effective maneuvering. Moscow is losing its control over the South Caucasus, which is mainly caused by the position of the western powers,” Alexandre Rondeli said.
Officials in Tbilisi hold active consultations regarding South Ossetia almost on a daily bases, with both Washington and Moscow. On July 17, Secretary of the Georgian National Security Council met with the U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Miles and, later on the same day, held talks with the Russian Foreign Ministry’s special envoy Lev Mironov, who was dispatched to Tbilisi after the recent crisis in South Ossetia erupted.
“There is no need to be in hurry. Now it’s up to diplomacy and negotiations to solve the problem. And Saakashvili has a good chance to succeed,” Alexandre Rondeli says.
