Edison Research: 13-Percentage Point Difference Between Exit Polls and Official Election Results Suggests Vote Manipulation

On November 1, Edison Research issued a statement on the Central Election Commission’s official results of the ruling Georgian Dream party’s 54 percent victory in the October 26 elections, which differed dramatically from the credible polling figures. Edison Research’s exit polls gave the GD 40.9 percent.

“The 13-point difference between Edison’s estimate and the official result of 54% for Georgian Dream cannot be explained by normal variation alone and suggests local-level manipulation of the vote,” Rob Farbman, Edison’s Executive Vice President said adding, “Edison’s review found that the deviation from statistically expected results was widespread, but most pronounced at specific polling locations in rural areas. These locations are likely to have had the most significant vote manipulation at the polling location level.”

The company notes that it has been conducting exit polls in Georgia since 2012, and that all of its previous polls have accurately supported the official results. “The average understatement of the Georgian Dream vote over five exit polls before 2024 stands at under 2%,” the company notes.

In 2023 and 2024, Edison Research conducted a total of twelve national polls. “These polls suggested that Georgian Dream would under-perform their 2020 vote by around 10 points. Instead, Georgian Dream exceeded their 2020 numbers by 6 points,” Edison notes.

“The exit poll models used in Georgia in 2024 are the same models used in previous Georgian elections. They are also the same models Edison Research will use in the upcoming U.S. election exit polls for ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC,” Edison Research concludes.

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