Over three decades of U.S.-Georgian partnership now hang in the balance due to Georgian Dream’s anti-democratic and anti-Western stance. In 2024, the outgoing Joe Biden administration responded with unprecedented sanctions, which remain in place under President Donald Trump.
After nine months in office, the Trump administration has largely ignored Georgia, as the country cannot offer opportunities for peace or trade deals, and Trump has no personal ties with its leaders to warrant attention. Moreover, the democracy challenges in Georgia are no longer a concern for America.
In the future, Washington may occasionally take a stance regarding developments in Georgia, but it will likely remain a passive observer. Shifting U.S. interests and Georgia’s own choices have rendered the partnership redundant.
Irakli Sirbiladze is a foreign policy analyst and visiting lecturer at Tbilisi State University, and a ReThink.CEE Fellow 2023 of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Over the decades, Georgian-U.S. relations have expanded across multiple domains. The signing of the Charter on Strategic Partnership in 2009 further strengthened ties in defense and security, economic cooperation, democracy, and people-to-people exchanges. The United States has provided more than $6 billion in development aid across these areas, while Georgia has remained its trusted partner.
These growing ties came under strain slowly after the war in Ukraine and more rapidly in 2024. Georgian Dream grew increasingly misaligned with Western approaches to the war, avoiding any military or economic entanglement with Russia. However, the party’s violent attack on democracy and protesters, as well as its rampant anti-American rhetoric, undermined relations with the U.S. The outgoing Biden administration suspended the strategic partnership with Georgia and sanctioned Georgian officials, including Bidzina Ivanishvili, leader of the Georgian Dream. The Trump administration’s suspension of development aid programs globally further curtailed cooperation.
Under Trump, the traditional pillars of U.S.-Georgian partnership – democracy, security, and economic cooperation – have been redefined and deprioritized. Other things being equal, Georgia is likely to remain at the margins of American foreign policy.
Both Georgian Dream and its opponents had hoped the Trump administration would act in their favor, but those hopes have so far been frustrated.
Georgian Dream has presented itself in alignment with Trump’s worldview, but has failed to convince his administration to undo the Biden-era status quo. Initially, the Trump administration set conditions to restore ties, but Ivanishvili refused to meet with the U.S. ambassador to discuss the matter. Georgian Dream leaders have been promising that improved ties with the U.S. are imminent, yet their public and private pleas to Trump to start relations from a “clean slate” remain unanswered. This has left Georgia diplomatically isolated, as exemplified by Georgian Dream’s Foreign Minister not being invited recently to an important Transatlantic Dinner hosted by Secretary Rubio.
Nor did the Georgian opposition and civil society manage to secure the Trump administration’s attention. Trump’s dismantling of democracy-support structures left Georgian political parties and civil society even more vulnerable to Georgian Dream’s repression. Protest marches in Tbilisi calling for U.S. support went unnoticed. The Georgian opposition is betting on pending bills in the U.S. Congress to pressure Georgian Dream, yet these efforts face hurdles to move forward.
No Value, No Transaction
Trump’s foreign policy is often characterized as value-void, transactional, and personalistic. Within it, there is little room for democracy. Transactional exchanges that enhance Trump’s image as a peacemaker and dealmaker are more highly valued, as are his personal bonds with world leaders.
This approach extends to Georgia as well. Under Trump, the United States is no longer an ally of democratic actors in Georgia, many of whom are in prison or may face imprisonment. The administration sees no transactional value in engaging with Georgia, as the country offers no opportunities for peacemaking or dealmaking. Nor does Trump have any personal friendship with Georgian leaders, whether in government or opposition, that might merit his attention or favor.
Trump’s dismantling of democracy-support structures left Georgian political parties and civil society even more vulnerable to Georgian Dream’s repression.
Georgia’s domestic challenges and troubling geopolitical alignment further underscore U.S. inaction. Domestically, the country has been engulfed in nearly a year of continuous protests following the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2024 and the ruling party’s decision to freeze EU accession for four years. In foreign policy, the Georgian Dream party is aligning politically, economically, and ideologically with the Axis of Upheaval, particularly Russia and China.
The result is an absence of bureaucratic interest or urgency to articulate a policy approach toward Georgia.
Relegated to Margins
The Trump administration may occasionally take a stance regarding Georgia, but it is likely to remain a dormant observer. Given the changing U.S. interests and Georgia’s own domestic troubles, the country is becoming increasingly peripheral to U.S. priorities.
Traditional hallmark areas of U.S.-Georgian partnership, such as democracy, security, and economic cooperation, take on a new meaning under Trump. These are likely to alter the character of U.S.-Georgian relations. Concerns about democracy have not triggered a response from the Trump administration, let alone punitive measures. This emboldens Georgian Dream, while putting Georgia’s pro-democracy actors at greater risk.
The United States is now even less committed to Georgia’s security, given its broader disengagement from European security. Washington may ultimately restore some security ties with Georgia, but they will fall short of offering security guarantees. The Trump administration may, in general, seem willing to sell arms, but purchasing them is not on Georgian Dream’s agenda.
Georgia’s transit role could have been of interest to the Trump administration, but the U.S. has been sidelined. Under Biden, Georgian Dream selected a Chinese company to build the Anaklia Deep Sea Port, although the deal is not yet legally finalized. This leaves open the question of whether the Trump administration views the Georgia-China deal as a fait accompli and prefers to accept it, or whether it could be ready to apply punitive measures to derail it. As alignment with China is now part of the trend across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Washington may be more likely to tolerate Tbilisi’s ties with Beijing.
The Trump administration may occasionally take a stance regarding Georgia, but it is likely to remain a dormant observer.
However, two alternative scenarios should also be considered, even if they are less probable.
First, given the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, the administration may respond to Georgian Dream’s growing ties with China and use punitive measures to alter its calculus. This could threaten Georgian Dream’s hold on power and inadvertently aid its democratic challengers. Second, if adopted, anti-Georgian Dream bills pending in Congress could shape the administration’s approach and push it further against Georgian Dream.
Under Trump, the traditional pillars of U.S.-Georgian partnership – democracy, security, and economic cooperation – have been redefined and deprioritized. Other things being equal, Georgia is likely to remain at the margins of American foreign policy.
The views and opinions expressed on Civil.ge opinions pages are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Civil.ge editorial staff